September 8, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Market Session Review

Sometimes that’s what happens…the train leaves without you. Our trade plan executed beautifully and for our overnight traders I am excited for you all. I have been testing via paper trading automating my trade plan into trades with futures and have seen great success so far. I need to still tighten the stop loss levels that I am willing to manage within my risk levels. As I get comfortable with this I will be sure to share my findings and when/IF I decide to add this to my arsenal.

Back to the trade plan, sometimes the moves occur without us. What I am happy is we didn’t chase - targets were met and there was two things that could have happened. Catch a knife going long if it continued to sell or come back to trade another day. I took that route today by not trading and there is absolutely nothing wrong with that especially when you don’t see a trade plan.

4417 is now on watch as we continue to make our way down the key levels on watch for this week.

Let’s discuss some important levels that I will be keeping an eye out for this month…

1. 4368 - this is June’s POC - point of control - and price will look to see if it finds buyers here and balance

2. 4400 - we have an uptrend line starting from May 24 and toughing August’s lows.

3. 4417 - this is August’s VAL - value area low on the volume profile. This would be a major defense by the bulls so we don’t have further selloff.

4. 4458 - this is June’s VAH on the volume profile. While we broke below this we did come back strong this week to push back above it. It becomes an important level we follow

5. 4480 - Septembers VAL - still forming and this range could continue to change and dynamically go up or down

6. 4507 - Septembers POC - still forming and could change as we go through the month

7. 4516 - this is August’s POC - point of control on the volume profile. We are trading below this level and closed below it at 4515 on Friday.

8. 4532 - this is August’s VAH - value area high on the volume profile. We rejected from this level on Friday and closed below it

9. 4557 - this is July’s POC - point of control on the volume profile. We are trading below it, but if we can capture 4532 and hold it we will then navigate to this level next

10. 4596 - this is July’s VAH - value area high on the volume profile. If we can break above 4557 and hold it we will target this area.

With that, let’s jump into the trade plan.

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SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

The bulls need to push price past 4460 first targeting 4475. Above there we can see 4490-4500.

The bears want to defend 4460 and more importantly 4475 to target 4450. Break below there we target 4435. Below 4435 targets 4415.

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ADBE

No major changes to our ADBE trade plan. ADBE continues to hold that 540 pivot we mentioned in the plan on Monday and more importantly it took back the 560 level as it lost it at the opening gapping down 10pts. Great push up by the bulls…

Important levels:

• 511-539 - bullish orderblock on daily chart

• 540-545 - negative vanna and last weeks VAL

• 555 - negative vanna

• 560 - last week’s POC - breached and holding

• 569 - last week’s VAH

• 570 - negative vanna

• 572-580 - bearish orderblock on daily chart

Trade Idea:

1. Above 540 OR 560 target 610 - swing trade

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland for $ADBE

$ADBE chart - overview of key orderblocks

For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

1. 9:00am est - FOMC Member Barr Speaks

2. 3:00pm est - Consumer Credit m/m

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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9/8 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4460 target 4475

2. If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 4475 targets 4490-4500

3. If there is a failed breakdown of 4415 target 4430 then 4445

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4450 target 4435

2. If there is a failed breakout of 4475 target 4450

3. If there is a breakdown of 4435 target 4415

As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 5pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.01.

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SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4460 - negative vanna

2. 4460-4467 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4464 midline

3. 4475 - negative vanna

4. 4500 - negative vanna

   1. 4501-4507 - OB (15min chart)

      1. 4504 midline

5. 4515 - negative vanna

   1. 4510-4516 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)

      1. 4508 midline

6. 4550 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4450 - negative vanna

2. 4415 - negative vanna

   1. 4435-4415 - OB (30min chart)

      1. 4425 midline

   2. 4425-4414 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4419 midline

3. 4400 - negative vanna

   1. 4417-4401 - OB (2hr chart)

      1. 4409 midline

4. 4390-4385 - negative vanna

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Dark Pool Levels

We had approx. $1.46B in dark pool prints at the 4466 level and another ~$2B at the 4452 level.

Above Spot:

1. 4458-4471 - 445.42-446.66 - $15.88B

2. 4485-4496 - 448.07-449.21 - $11.37B

3. 4505-4516 -450.12-451.16 - $17.57B

4. 4568-4580 - 456.43-457.64 - $10.38B

Below Spot:

1. 4434-4431 - 442.98-442.73 - $10.62B

2. 4404-4385 - 439.97-438.09 - $18.55B

3. 4375-4367 - 437.03-436.29 - $12.66B

4. 4340-4336 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B

5. 4316-4283 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B

6. 4205-4180 - 420.16-417.60 - $18.8B

I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

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Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break. I use Sonarlab’s indicator on Tradingview to plot these.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4460-4467 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4464 midline

2. 4501-4507 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4504 midline

3. 4510-4516 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)

   1. 4508 midline

4. 4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4577 midline

5. 4573-4594 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4584 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4458-4375 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4416 midline

2. 4435-4415 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4425 midline

3. 4425-4414 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4419 midline

4. 4417-4401 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4409 midline

5. 4416-4356 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4386 midline

6. 4362-4328 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4345 midline

7. 4345-4328 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4336 midline

Green Outlines: OB’s or Demand; Blue Outline: OB’s or Supply

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Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~47.61 points. SPY’s expected move is ~4.89. That puts us at 4563.39 to the upside and 4468.17 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 456.10 and 446.32.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

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Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

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Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4460-4550 - negative vanna

   1. 4460 - negative vanna

   2. 4475 - negative vanna

   3. 4500 - negative vanna

   4. 4515 - negative vanna

   5. 4550 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4450 - negative vanna

2. 4415 - negative vanna

3. 4400 - negative vanna

4. 4390-4385 - negative vanna

5. 4375 - negative vanna

6. 4360 - negative vanna

Aggregate Vanna levels via Volland

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Gamma

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support

Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…

Above Spot:

1. 4455 - positive gamma

2. 4530 - positive gamma

3. 4545 - positive gamma

4. 4570 - positive gamma

Below Spot:

1. 4445 - positive gamma

2. 4415 - positive gamma

3. 4385 - positive gamma

4. 4375 - positive gamma

5. 4360 - positive gamma

Aggregate Gamma levels via Volland

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My Intraday Trading Rules

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To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

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