September 6, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Market Session Review

Another Monday and another day of consolidation in the market. Besides the nice selloff that was provided in the trade plan for our ES/futures trader we got to our target on SPX at 4500 and basically chopped around this level and 4515.

The key theme on Monday’s with no news catalysts seems to be a day of balancing especially before a data release like today’s session presents. Monday’s continue to frustrate many traders and I have taken a more conservative approach to trading Monday’s and as I posted on X I did not like this action. Very sloppy, no continuation, quick/sharp reversals in both directions.

Look at your 30min chart and you will see the exact definition of what consolidation looks like. What was interesting was the late selloff in the market to close the session and ultimately pushing SPX below 4500 and closing at 4496.

I am going to continue to leave some important levels marked here from yesterday’s trade plan. We lost 4516 and never got back above it. Next area of interest this month comes 4458!

Let’s discuss some important levels that I will be keeping an eye out for this month…

1. 4596 - this is July’s VAH - value area high on the volume profile. If we can break above 4557 and hold it we will target this area.

2. 4557 - this is July’s POC - point of control on the volume profile. We are trading below it, but if we can capture 4532 and hold it we will then navigate to this level next

3. 4532 - this is August’s VAH - value area high on the volume profile. We rejected from this level on Friday and closed below it

4. 4516 - this is August’s POC - point of control on the volume profile. We are trading below this level and closed below it at 4515 on Friday.

5. 4458 - this is June’s VAH on the volume profile. While we broke below this we did come back strong this week to push back above it. It becomes an important level we follow

6. 4417 - this is August’s VAL - value area low on the volume profile. This would be a major defense by the bulls so we don’t have further selloff.

With that, let’s jump into the trade plan.

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SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

For bulls they will want to keep price above 4500 and ideally 4510 targeting 4525.

For bears this is simple keep price below 4500 targeting 4485 then 4460.

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ADBE

No major changes to our ADBE trade plan.

I am curious to see how ADBE fares at the 540-545 level. I think this would be a great entry to ride into ER and post ER IF we were to see it again. So I am keeping a close eye on this zone.

If we hold 540-545 I think 610 then trades and post it 635. It feels like the dealers want to keep price up on this ticker then push it down. This isn’t a weekly expiry kind of play and instead I would play 2-4 weeks out.

Important levels:

• 511-539 - bullish orderblock on daily chart

• 540-545 - negative vanna and last weeks VAL

• 555 - negative vanna

• 560 - last week’s POC - naked/not breached

• 569 - last week’s VAH

• 572-580 - bearish orderblock on daily chart

Trade Idea:

1. Above 540 target 610 - swing trade

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland for $ADBE

$ADBE chart - overview of key orderblocks

For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

1. 10am est - ISM Services PMI

2. 3pm est - FOMC Member Logan Speaks

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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9/6 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4510 target 4525

2. If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 4525 targets 4540

3. If there is a failed breakdown of 4455-4460 target 4475

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4485 target 4460

2. If there is a failed breakout of 4500 target 4485

3. If there is a breakdown of 4455 target 4440

As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 6pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.01.

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SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4505-4540 - negative vanna

   1. 4507-4510 - OB (15min chart)

      1. 4508 midline

   2. 4505-4516 -450.12-451.16 - $17.57B

2. 4550 - negative vanna

3. 4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4577 midline

   2. 4568-4580 - 456.43-457.64 - $10.38B

Below Spot:

1. 4492-4483 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4488 midline

   2. 4496-4485 - 449.21-448.07 - $11.37B

2. 4460-4455 - negative vanna

   1. 4458-4375 - OB (1D chart)

      1. 4416 midline

   2. 4471-4458 - 446.66-445.42 - $12.15B

3. 4435-4415 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4425 midline

   2. 4434-4431 - 442.98-442.73 - $10.62B

4. 4405-4000 - negative vanna

   1. 4417-4401 - OB (2hr chart)

      1. 4409 midline

   2. 4404-4385 - 439.97-438.09 - $18.55B

5. 4390 - negative vanna

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Dark Pool Levels

Only one major dark pool print today at the 4516 (451.16) level.

Above Spot:

1. 4505-4516 -450.12-451.16 - $17.57B

2. 4568-4580 - 456.43-457.64 - $10.38B

Below Spot:

1. 4496-4485 - 449.21-448.07 - $11.37B

2. 4471-4458 - 446.66-445.42 - $12.15B

3. 4434-4431 - 442.98-442.73 - $10.62B

4. 4404-4385 - 439.97-438.09 - $18.55B

5. 4375-4367 - 437.03-436.29 - $12.66B

6. 4340-4336 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B

7. 4316-4283 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B

8. 4205-4180 - 420.16-417.60 - $18.8B

I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

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Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break. I use Sonarlab’s indicator on Tradingview to plot these.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4507-4510 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4508 midline

2. 4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4577 midline

3. 4573-4594 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4584 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4492-4483 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4488 midline

2. 4458-4375 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4416 midline

3. 4435-4415 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4425 midline

4. 4425-4414 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4419 midline

5. 4417-4401 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4409 midline

6. 4416-4356 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4386 midline

7. 4362-4328 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4345 midline

8. 4345-4328 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4336 midline

Green Outlines: OB’s or Demand; Blue Outline: OB’s or Supply

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Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~47.61 points. SPY’s expected move is ~4.89. That puts us at 4563.39 to the upside and 4468.17 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 456.10 and 446.32.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

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Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

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Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4505-4540 - negative vanna

2. 4550 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4460-4455 - negative vanna

2. 4405-4000 - negative vanna

3. 4390 - negative vanna

Aggregate Vanna levels via Volland

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Gamma

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support

Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…

Above Spot:

1. 4545 - positive gamma

2. 4570-4575 - positive gamma

Below Spot:

1. 4460-4455 - positive gamma

2. 4405 - positive gamma

Aggregate Gamma levels via Volland

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My Intraday Trading Rules

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To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

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