September 5, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Market Notes Overview

Congrats to the bulls getting price to push up after consolidating all of Monday. While we did the typical small pull backs there was absolutely zero reason to be bearish. Look at the 2hr chart after Monday’s consolidation day, we didn’t print a red candle until Thursday. That’s what we call nice timeframe continuity.

On top of that, the bulls finally broke out of the falling wedge we were trading in all of August with one fake breakout down below trapping bears only to come back within the wedge - this is really bullish. From there it didn’t take us long after that to finally breakout of this wedge.

Additionally, in the chart below you will also see that the 10ema crossed over the 50ema. This is a bullish crossover and any dips should be faced with buying pressure until these ema’s cross again. On higher timeframes when this happens it is a leading indicator of larger moves to come.

SPX 2HR Timeframe Chart - Falling Wedge nicely broke out giving us a nice bullish run last week - note how many or lack of red candles we had too

I remember saying in the Volland discord after March’s OPEX that we will be lucky to see 3900 again and that’s true so far. I will now go out to say we will see a new 52 week high and will come pretty damn close to getting to ATH’s if not making new ATH’s by January of next year. I know you will say “but what about the macros” well the market doesn’t care at this point and time while there are others who feel like the FED are going to need to cut rates sooner to keep the economy going and/or stop hiking. I don’t disagree with the macro view, but with an election year coming as you look price action doesn’t lie. Earnings coming out better than expected you will do yourself zero favors keeping this macro view in your intraday trading. Look at the weekly or monthly chart and tell me what screens of a pullback below 4200 at this point especially IF we can’t break 4300? Never say never indeed especially with geopolitical news and such, but we need to find opportunities like earlier in this month when we traded to 4335 held and rallied almost 200 pts from there.

Again, I look at where price may go in the next quarter next month next week and the next day. I am not looking at the market 6+ months in my intraday trading - it’s all noise. Which is why I have my long term accounts where I do not care for its balance on a day-to-day or month-to-month basis and may not login to see that account except for a few times a year. Remove that bias and trade both ways. We go up we long and if we go down we short.

Let’s discuss some important levels that I will be keeping an eye out for this month…

1. 4596 - this is July’s VAH - value area high on the volume profile. If we can break above 4557 and hold it we will target this area.

2. 4557 - this is July’s POC - point of control on the volume profile. We are trading below it, but if we can capture 4532 and hold it we will then navigate to this level next

3. 4532 - this is August’s VAH - value area high on the volume profile. We rejected from this level on Friday and closed below it

4. 4516 - this is August’s POC - point of control on the volume profile. We are trading below this level and closed below it at 4515 on Friday.

5. 4458 - this is June’s VAH on the volume profile. While we broke below this we did come back strong this week to push back above it. It becomes an important level we follow

6. 4417 - this is August’s VAL - value area low on the volume profile. This would be a major defense by the bulls so we don’t have further selloff.

With that, let’s jump into the trade plan.

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SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

The bulls want to keep price above 4520 to continue for more uptrend, but before they get there they need to defend 4500. Keep 4500 as support we can target back towards 4520 and then 4535.

Bears want to end the bull party by first breaking down 4500 to target 4485. Prior to that they will need to defend 4520 and/or 4535. Defend those we get to 4500 then.

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ADBE

What an incredible rally in ADBE I missed out. This has really become one of my favorite tickers to trade and with earnings next week does it have more? Let’s find out…

I am curious to see how ADBE fares at the 540-545 level. I think this would be a great entry to ride into ER and post ER IF we were to see it again. So I am keeping a close eye on this zone.

If we hold 540-545 I think 610 then trades and post it 635. It feels like the dealers want to keep price up on this ticker then push it down. This isn’t a weekly expiry kind of play and instead I would play 2-4 weeks out.

Important levels:

• 511-539 - bullish orderblock on daily chart

• 540-545 - negative vanna and last weeks VAL

• 555 - negative vanna

• 560 - last week’s POC - naked/not breached

• 569 - last week’s VAH

• 572-580 - bearish orderblock on daily chart

Trade Idea:

1. Above 540 target 610 - swing trade

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland for $ADBE

$ADBE chart - overview of key orderblocks

For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

No catalyst for the 9/5 trading session.

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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9/5 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4520 target 4535

2. If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 4535 targets 4550

3. If there is a failed breakdown of 4500 target 4520

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4500 target 4485

2. If there is a failed breakout of 4520 or 4535 target 4500

3. If there is a breakdown of 4485 target 4470

As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 6pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.01.

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SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4520 - negative vanna

2. 4530-4535 - negative vanna

3. 4550 - negative vanna

4. 4555-4565 - negative vanna

5. 4580-4585 - negative vanna

   1. 4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)

      1. 4577 midline

      2. 4568-4580 - 456.43-457.64 - $10.38B

   2. 4573-4594 - OB (1D chart)

      1. 4584 midline

Below Spot:

1. 4500 - negative vanna

   1. 4511-4504 - OB (15min chart)

      1. 4507 midline

   2. 4515-4514 - 451.14-450.12 - $16.32B

2. 4485 - negative vanna

   1. 4492-4483 - OB (15min chart)

      1. 4488 midline

   2. 4496-4485 - 449.21-448.07 - $11.37B

3. 4470-4465 - negative vanna

   1. 4458-4375 - OB (1D chart)

      1. 4416 midline

   2. 4471-4458 - 446.66-445.42 - $12.15B

4. 4435 - negative vanna

   1. 4435-4415 - OB (30min chart)

      1. 4425 midline

   2. 4425-4414 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4419 midline

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Dark Pool Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4568-4580 - 456.43-457.64 - $10.38B

Below Spot:

1. 4515-4514 - 451.14-450.12 - $16.32B

2. 4496-4485 - 449.21-448.07 - $11.37B

3. 4471-4458 - 446.66-445.42 - $12.15B

4. 4434-4431 - 442.98-442.73 - $10.62B

5. 4404-4385 - 439.97-438.09 - $18.55B

6. 4375-4367 - 437.03-436.29 - $12.66B

7. 4340-4336 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B

8. 4316-4283 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B

9. 4205-4180 - 420.16-417.60 - $18.8B

I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

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Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break. I use Sonarlab’s indicator on Tradingview to plot these.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4577 midline

2. 4573-4594 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4584 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4511-4504 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4507 midline

2. 4492-4483 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4488 midline

3. 4458-4375 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4416 midline

4. 4435-4415 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4425 midline

5. 4425-4414 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4419 midline

6. 4417-4401 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4409 midline

7. 4416-4356 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4386 midline

8. 4362-4328 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4345 midline

9. 4345-4328 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4336 midline

Green Outlines: OB’s or Demand; Blue Outline: OB’s or Supply

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Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~47.61 points. SPY’s expected move is ~4.89. That puts us at 4563.39 to the upside and 4468.17 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 456.10 and 446.32.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

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Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

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Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4520 - negative vanna

2. 4530-4535 - negative vanna

3. 4550 - negative vanna

4. 4555-4565 - negative vanna

5. 4580-4585 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4500 - negative vanna

2. 4485 - negative vanna

3. 4470-4465 - negative vanna

4. 4435 - negative vanna

5. 4405 - negative vanna

9/5 Vanna Expiry via Volland

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Gamma

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support

Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…

Above Spot:

1. 4525 - positive gamma

2. 4540 - positive gamma

3. 4550-4555 - positive gamma

4. 4570-4575 - positive gamma

5. 4590-4595 - positive gamma

Below Spot:

1. 4515 - positive gamma

2. 4500 - positive gamma

3. 4485 - positive gamma

4. 4470-4465 - positive gamma

9/5 Gamma Expiry via Volland

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My Intraday Trading Rules

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To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

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