September 27, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Market Review - Last Session

Just an amazing day for all of us if you stuck to the trade plan, #paytiently waited, and more importantly had conviction. My conviction started the day prior where I took a 4300p on the multiple failed breakouts of 4335 on Monday. Now that rally EOD on Monday as you continue to learn to trade and see these types of days, reeked of a classic bull trap move.

This “mysterious” rally EOD did push premiums down on puts, but I held my conviction, stuck to my trade plan, reviewed the latest data in Volland, orderblocks, and decided I would stay in my SPX positions. We then got the overnight move where we hit our key levels and opened the day in the middle of one of our trades. The open was 4311 and the high got to 4313 before we then sold off. The trade plan stated…

1. Below 4325 target 4315

2. If VIX continues going up then a breakdown of 4315 targets 4290

3. If VIX continues going up then a breakdown of 4290 targets 4280

Trade idea 1 hit in the overnight sessions. Congrats to our ES traders if you started a position overnight…

Trade idea 2 is where we opened the session. This is one trade I would have taken knowing that the trend was clearly bearish, yields were increasing, VIX was increasing, and we had news catalyst at 10am est. I would have traded this by looking at the 5 min chart and anytime it came near 4315 I would have added to shorts with a stop loss at 4320. This was the trade and since I came in with a position overnight I simply added to my option trades believing in the trade plan, the data presented to me at that moment, and a strong bearish sentiment.

Trade idea 3 was a bit harder. 4290 did break, only to find support at 4285 to then rally towards 4295. It is near this level where we had more bears come in and join the party to push price as low as 4265.

All-in-all I would say we had one hell of a successful trading session and we were able to accomplish this by being #paytient and having conviction to our plan and levels.

In terms of our key levels we lost 4309 today which held the day prior. All eyes should shift to that key level at 4232 where that trendline sits and that IMO is the single most important level now left for the bulls to defend and where a sustained rally could start from. Keep a close eye towards this level…