September 26, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Market Review - Last Session

Today was another classic day where the market consolidated on a non-news driven session. I want you to do yourself a favor and open up the ticker ES. Here is what you would have seen had you woken up prior to the market open and reviewed the overnight trading.

1. We never got above 4379 - which is 4338 on SPX

2. We then got the retracement back to 4347 - which is 4306 on SPX

3. We then hit a new low right prior to the open at 4338 - which is 4298 on SPX

4. Then the trading session opened and we tested a key level on SPX at 4309 - lost it, but this was a prime example of a failed breakdown where we overtook it and then held it for the rest of the trading session

Now compare this to our trade plan yesterday:

Monday coming up and another Monday with no news catalyst. As I stated in last Tuesday’s trading plan, Monday’s are acting like consolidation days for the rest of the week and I would treat it as such until that trend breaks. We could in other words chop around to be ready for this…

Bulls want to keep price above 4325 to target 4335 and IF we break and hold 4335 target 4350.

Bears want to defend 4335 and a failed breakout there will target 4320. Below we target 4300 then 4290.

As we stated and what we got:

1. Chop - sideways action overnight and into the trading session - only breaking the highs right before the close of the session

2. We stayed within our high of the day and target at 4335

3. We stayed within our low of the day and target at 4300

What’s important is we held June’s VAL which was 4309. While we did close above last week’s VAL currently in overnight action we have rejected this value area suggesting we might be seeking price below which could come below yesterday’s low and targeting 4294 - which is a VAH from the week of 6/5.

Let’s discuss some important levels that I will be keeping an eye out for this month…

Above Spot:

1. 4355 - last week’s VAL

2. 4368 - this is June’s POC - point of control

3. 4401 - gap fill

4. 4417 - this is August’s VAL - value area low on the volume profile.

5. 4424 - Septembers VAL - still forming and this range could continue to change and dynamically go up or down

6. 4452 - Septembers POC - still forming and could change as we go through the month

7. 4458 - this is June’s VAH on the volume profile. While we broke below this we did come back strong this week to push back above it. It becomes an important level we follow

8. 4482 - the VAH of last weeks - 9/11 - value area high

9. 4494 - Septembers VAH - value area high - still forming and will change as we go through the month

10. 4516 - this is August’s POC - point of control on the volume profile. We are trading below this level and closed below it at 4515 on Friday.

Below Spot:

1. 4335 - this is the week of 8/14’s VAL

2. 4309 - this is June’s VAL - value area low - we lose this and we get 4250-4200 pretty fast then. Why? There is not a lot of volume in this area that pushed price up so it will rip down pretty fast then

3. 4294 - Week of 6/5’s VAH and a key zone we broke off which was a catalyst to our move to 4600

4. 4232 - gap fill from 6/1 AND where our bull/up trendline from the lows of October 2022 and March 2023

5. 4214 - this is August 2022’s VAH - value area high

6. 4190 - 200sma on daily chart

7. 4180 - this is May’s VAH - value area high

8. 4125 - this is May’s POC - point of control - hasn’t been breached

9. 4095 - this is May’s VAL - value area low - hasn’t been breached

With that, let’s jump into the trade plan.

---

SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

Major gap down in futures as of writing. I would caution on just jumping immediately into a trade if you are not already.

Bulls need to retake a key level like 4325 to start to target 4335-4340. Above it we would target 4350. I would be cautious with any longs besides scalping as they could be against trend.