September 15, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan
Market Review - Last Session
Finally we got some range in the markets today. A nice gap up at the open which was then followed through with our first trade target at 4500 and then tapping 4511. Those last 11 pts were tough - an up and down affair and as I posted on X getting there will be tough and if you are trading options those are the times where decay takes over. Just not worth the squeeze but if you traded and held and bought time congrats.
Let’s talk about that failed breakdown of 4480. Essentially with the trade plan I laid out the zone between 4470-4485 is complete chop. 4475-4480 were the two levels where the fight out of it would dictate the days trend. This is why I had our trade ideas on the flip side of these levels - go short 4470 and long 4485.
When we got to 4480 there was an opportunity to jump the short, but ONLY if it held 4480 once it broke it. Instead, we broke that level but within mins immediately took it back and closed above 4480. Besides one 5min candle that closed at 4479 we had no other reason to believe that the day would turn bearish cause of how much volume and buying was occurring at this level.
Just a reminder tomorrow is Quad Witching. It is going to be volatile so trade lighter or manage your risk tightly.
No major changes to our key levels besides the current September profile which changes daily. 4492 is now the VAH - 4488 previously. VAL is now 4441 previously 4444.
Let’s discuss some important levels that I will be keeping an eye out for this month…
Above Spot:
4471 - the VAH of last weeks - 9/5 - value area high
4492 - Septembers VAH - value area high - still forming and could change as we go through the month - it will be important for bulls to break above this for more upside
4516 - this is August’s POC - point of control on the volume profile. We are trading below this level and closed below it at 4515 on Friday.
4532 - this is August’s VAH - value area high on the volume profile. We rejected from this level on Friday and closed below it
4557 - this is July’s POC - point of control on the volume profile. We are trading below it, but if we can capture 4532 and hold it we will then navigate to this level next
4596 - this is July’s VAH - value area high on the volume profile. If we can break above 4557 and hold it we will target this area.
Below Spot:
4464 - Septembers POC - still forming and could change as we go through the month - we are currently trading above it which is critical for more upside
4458 - this is June’s VAH on the volume profile. While we broke below this we did come back strong this week to push back above it. It becomes an important level we follow
4441 - Septembers VAL - still forming and this range could continue to change and dynamically go up or down
4417 - this is August’s VAL - value area low on the volume profile. This would be a major defense by the bulls so we don’t have further selloff.
4400 - we have an uptrend line starting from May 24 and toughing August’s lows.
4368 - this is June’s POC - point of control - and price will look to see if it finds buyers here and balance
4309 - this is June’s VAL - value area low - we lose this and we get 4250-4200 pretty fast then. Why? There is not a lot of volume in this area that pushed price up so it will rip down pretty fast then
With that, let’s jump into the trade plan.
SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)
Bulls will want to push price above 4515 targeting 4525. If we break 4525 AND VIX goes down target 4540.
Bears will want to defend 4515 pushing price back towards 4500 then 4485. If VIX continues up then we target 4470.
ADBE ER
Alright, with ER behind us and a missed call let’s reasses our trade plan with ADBE. Although it beat ER expectations the company is offering notes and this plunged the price in the ticker. So what’s next?
542.5 and 530 are key levels to the downside. To the upside 552.5 and 555 become important.
Trade Idea:
Below 542.5 target 530
If there is a failed breakout of 552.5 or 555 target 550 then 542.5
Above 555 target 560
If there is a failed breakdown of 542.5 target 552.5
For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.
News Catalyst
8:30am est - Empire State Manufacturing Index
9:15am est - Industrial Production m/m
10:00am est - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment
10:00am est - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations
For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar
9/15 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan
Bullish bias:
Above 4515 target 4525
If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 4525 targets 4540
Bearish bias:
Below 4485 target 4470
If there is a failed breakout of 4515 target 4500 then 4485
If VIX continues going up then a breakdown of 4470 targets 4455
As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.
Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 50pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.01.
SPX - The Why Behind the Plan
Key Levels
Above Spot:
4515 - negative vanna
4510-4516 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)
4508 midline
4505-4516 -450.12-451.16 - $20.57B
4525 - negative vanna
4540 - negative vanna
4550 - negative vanna
Below Spot:
4490-4485 - negative vanna
4496-4485 - 449.21-448.07 - $15.92B
4455 - negative vanna
4474-4456 - OB (1hr chart)
4465 midline
4471-4458 - 446.66-445.42 - $26.25B
4457-4448 - OB (1hr chart)
4453 midline
4430 - negative vanna
4435-4415 - OB (30min chart)
4425 midline
4434-4431 - 442.98-442.73 - $10.62B
4400 - negative vanna
4417-4401 - OB (2hr chart)
4409 midline
Dark Pool Levels
We had a $4.5B print - most likely came from Wednesday’s trading session - at the 4471 level and another $3B at 4505 today.
Above Spot:
4505-4516 -450.12-451.16 - $20.57B
4568-4580 - 456.43-457.64 - $10.38B
Below Spot:
4496-4485 - 449.21-448.07 - $15.92B
4471-4458 - 446.66-445.42 - $26.25B
4434-4431 - 442.98-442.73 - $10.62B
4404-4385 - 439.97-438.09 - $18.55B
4375-4367 - 437.03-436.29 - $12.66B
4340-4336 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B
4316-4283 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B
4205-4180 - 420.16-417.60 - $18.8B
I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data. How you want to view these levels is potential magnets. A lot of consolidation will happen at these levels so when we are trading away from one level price will then target the next area of interest whales have.
Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break. I use Sonarlab’s indicator on Tradingview to plot these.
Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.
4510-4516 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)
4508 midline
4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)
4577 midline
4573-4594 - OB (1D chart)
4584 midline
Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.
This one level here on the daily is a major bullish orderblock.
4458-4375 - OB (1D chart)
4416 midline
4474-4456 - OB (1hr chart)
4465 midline
4457-4448 - OB (1hr chart)
4453 midline
4435-4415 - OB (30min chart)
4425 midline
4425-4414 - OB (1hr chart)
4419 midline
4417-4401 - OB (2hr chart)
4409 midline
4416-4356 - OB (4hr chart)
4386 midline
4362-4328 - OB (1D chart)
4345 midline
4345-4328 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)
4336 midline
Weekly Option Expected Move
SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~59.55 points. SPY’s expected move is ~6.27. That puts us at 4517.05 to the upside and 4397.95 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 451.79 and 439.25.
Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.
Volland Data
For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.
Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet
Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.
Positive vanna - will act as magnet
Negative vanna - will act as repellent
When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.
Above Spot:
4510-4530 - negative vanna
4515 - negative vanna
4525 - negative vanna
4540-4555 - negative vanna
4540 - negative vanna
4550 - negative vanna
Below Spot:
4490-4485 - negative vanna
4455 - negative vanna
4430 - negative vanna
4400 - negative vanna
Gamma
Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance
Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support
Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…
Above Spot:
4535 - positive gamma
4545 - positive gamma
4560 - positive gamma
Below Spot:
4490-4485 - positive gamma
4400 - positive gamma
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.