September 11, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Market Weekly Preview

CPI is the major market mover this week with the Apple event on Tuesday also another one to watch for volatility - sell the news or will they surprise and buy the news?

Before we review some key levels for this week I want to share an interesting study by waynewhaley.com - where typically the middle or second week of September has fared decently before falling into some of the worst weeks of the year between September 19-26. What’s more interesting over the years is that when we go on a streak of selling y/y it continues for a bit before flipping - see the positive vs red years for Sep 9-19.

The second week of September typically delivers an uptrend

Here is a great overview from Wayne Whaley on the Ten Worst SPX weeks of the year…

The week after September OPEX typically sells off

I have updated some of the key levels on the month to watch and you can use these as swings or even weeklies. Take one price level to another target and watch for key bounces or reversals.

Let’s discuss some important levels that I will be keeping an eye out for this month…

Above Spot:

1. 4458 - this is June’s VAH on the volume profile. While we broke below this we did come back strong this week to push back above it. It becomes an important level we follow

2. 4471 - the VAH of last weeks - 9/5 - value area high

3. 4500 - Septembers VAH - value area high - still forming and could change as we go through the month - it will be important for bulls to break above this for more upside

4. 4516 - this is August’s POC - point of control on the volume profile. We are trading below this level and closed below it at 4515 on Friday.

5. 4532 - this is August’s VAH - value area high on the volume profile. We rejected from this level on Friday and closed below it

6. 4557 - this is July’s POC - point of control on the volume profile. We are trading below it, but if we can capture 4532 and hold it we will then navigate to this level next

7. 4596 - this is July’s VAH - value area high on the volume profile. If we can break above 4557 and hold it we will target this area.

Below Spot:

1. 4453 - Septembers POC - still forming and could change as we go through the month - we are currently trading above it which is critical for more upside

2. 4430 - Septembers VAL - still forming and this range could continue to change and dynamically go up or down

3. 4417 - this is August’s VAL - value area low on the volume profile. This would be a major defense by the bulls so we don’t have further selloff.

4. 4400 - we have an uptrend line starting from May 24 and toughing August’s lows.

5. 4368 - this is June’s POC - point of control - and price will look to see if it finds buyers here and balance

6. 4309 - this is June’s VAL - value area low - we lose this and we get 4250-4200 pretty fast then. Why? There is not a lot of volume in this area that pushed price up so it will rip down pretty fast then

The other item I wish to bring to your attention is the VIX chart. It is currently in a downtrend and until we see this downtrend broken we will see the market rally. We do have more downside action for the VIX and I will continue to pay attention to this chart for direction on risk on/off sentiment.

VIX is in a current downtrend on smaller timeframes

With that, let’s jump into the trade plan.

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SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

The bulls will want price above 4475 to target 4495. First though, they must defend 4450.

The bears they need price below 4450 to target 4435. Another area bears want to defend is 4475 to push price back towards 4460.

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ADBE

Important earnings week for ADBE. Earnings will hit Thursday after the bell and if we look at the volume profile you will see that 556 is a key level where if we lose it we start to target the VAL - value area low - from 8/28 at 540. Below that we target 520. Above 560 we target 563 then 572-580.

What about dealer positioning? 567.5 will act as resistance and 580-590 will be next area of resistance. To the downside 560 is important below that 555 and then 545. If we lose 545 then we target 535.

So ultimately, I think the following scenarios will play out:

1. If ER beat AND guides higher - 600-610 will come where we will find sellers then

2. If ER beat AND no guidance - 580-590 hits where we will find sellers

3. If ER no beat AND no guidance - 545 trades where we may find buyers then

4. If ER no beat AND guides lower - 535-530 trades where we may find buyers then

Important levels:

• 511-539 - bullish orderblock on daily chart

• 556 - last weeks VAL

• 560.56 - last week’s POC - breached and retraced back - currently below this level

• 563 - last week’s VAH

• 567.5 - negative vanna

• 572-580 - bearish orderblock on daily chart

• 580-590 - negative vanna

• 610 - negative vanna

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland for $ADBE

$ADBE chart - overview of key orderblocks

For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

No news catalyst for Sep 11, 2023.

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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9/11 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4475 target 4495

2. If there is a failed breakdown of 4450-4455 target 4470

3. If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 4495 targets 4515

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4450 target 4435

2. If there is a failed breakout of 4475 target 4450

As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 54pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.01.

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SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4470-4480 - negative vanna

   1. 4460-4467 - OB (30min chart)

      1. 4464 midline

   2. 4458-4471 - 445.42-446.66 - $18.42B

2. 4495 - negative vanna

   1. 4501-4507 - OB (15min chart)

      1. 4504 midline

   2. 4485-4496 - 448.07-449.21 - $11.37B

3. 4515 - negative vanna

   1. 4510-4516 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)

      1. 4508 midline

   2. 4505-4516 -450.12-451.16 - $17.57B

Below Spot:

1. 4450-4425 - negative vanna

   1. 4435-4415 - OB (30min chart)

      1. 4425 midline

   2. 4434-4431 - 442.98-442.73 - $10.62B

2. 4415-4400 - negative vanna

   1. 4417-4401 - OB (2hr chart)

      1. 4409 midline

   2. 4404-4385 - 439.97-438.09 - $18.55B

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Dark Pool Levels

We had approx. $2.5B in dark pool prints at the 4458 level on Friday.

Above Spot:

1. 4458-4471 - 445.42-446.66 - $18.42B

2. 4485-4496 - 448.07-449.21 - $11.37B

3. 4505-4516 -450.12-451.16 - $17.57B

4. 4568-4580 - 456.43-457.64 - $10.38B

Below Spot:

1. 4434-4431 - 442.98-442.73 - $10.62B

2. 4404-4385 - 439.97-438.09 - $18.55B

3. 4375-4367 - 437.03-436.29 - $12.66B

4. 4340-4336 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B

5. 4316-4283 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B

6. 4205-4180 - 420.16-417.60 - $18.8B

I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

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Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break. I use Sonarlab’s indicator on Tradingview to plot these.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4460-4467 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4464 midline

2. 4501-4507 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4504 midline

3. 4510-4516 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)

   1. 4508 midline

4. 4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4577 midline

5. 4573-4594 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4584 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4458-4375 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4416 midline

2. 4435-4415 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4425 midline

3. 4425-4414 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4419 midline

4. 4417-4401 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4409 midline

5. 4416-4356 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4386 midline

6. 4362-4328 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4345 midline

7. 4345-4328 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4336 midline

Green Outlines: OB’s or Demand; Blue Outline: OB’s or Supply

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Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~59.55 points. SPY’s expected move is ~6.27. That puts us at 4517.05 to the upside and 4397.95 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 451.79 and 439.25.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

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Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

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Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4470-4480 - negative vanna

2. 4495 - negative vanna

3. 4515 - negative vanna

4. 4525 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4450-4425 - negative vanna

2. 4415-4400 - negative vanna

Aggregate Vanna levels via Volland

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Gamma

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support

Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…

Above Spot:

1. 4460-4465 - positive gamma

2. 4485-4490 - positive gamma

3. 4500 - positive gamma

4. 4510 - positive gamma

Below Spot:

1. 4455-4425 - positive gamma

2. 4415-4400 - positive gamma

Aggregate Gamma levels via Volland

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My Intraday Trading Rules

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To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

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