October 9, 2023 SPX, SPY, US500, ES Trade Plan

Weekly Market Overview

Hello fellow traders. First and foremost seeing what is happening in the Middle East is sad. Any progress seems to be faced with more turmoil. I won’t use this letter on a history lesson, but let’s hope the innocent people on both sides of this come out stronger and we can continue to make progress towards peace.

With that said, it is hard not to acknowledge the mess in the Middle East has had with overnight futures. Tremendous gap down in the futures market with ES down -0.73%. What’s interesting is where we found support at 4302 - if we translate that into SPX that is 4270.

As we continue to watch overnight action the level that peaks my interest is 4310 as resistance or 4277 on SPX. If we can break and then hold this level this will be extremely bullish from a swing timeframe - 2-3 months out. It means the bulls are starting to accept price at these levels and want to put a fight in to continue pushing it up.

Below I am looking at 4300-4296 ES or 4267-4263 as key support levels. Need to see these levels hold in order to continue our bullish bias otherwise we flip bearish then. We could overshoot to 4260 before taking back these support levels. So be paytient and wait for price to move and react to it then.

So in summary I want to see max 4265-60 to hold in SPX when we open in the morning session. So far this level is holding in overnight, but let’s react to the levels not predict. To the downside I may stay out and see if we have any reaction at 4250. The risk/reward below 4265 is just not worth it to me, but if you trade it take profits and quick scalp.

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Dark Matter Trade Room - Chat Room on Substack

Dark Matter Trade - Chat Room on Substack

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SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

Futures market have a major gap down, but so far finding support. We want to see SPX hold 4265-60, but ideally recapture 4280 to continue its push back towards 4300. Keep in mind it is Monday and major news coming Wednesday thru Friday. Monday and Tuesday will just be FOMC speakers and the Israel conflict. In other words we could get chop/sideways action trapping traders going long and short.

So if you are bullish…