October 31, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Market Recap

Before we get into the trade plan and a recap of yesterday’s action - Happy Halloween to everyone! Trick or Treat. Be safe. Have some fun. The world is not so rosy these days and if there is one day that can bring some laughter and joy into your day this is it.

happy halloween

Yesterday’s plan played out perfectly as we discussed above 4130 target 4150 and then 4160. Above there 4175. Gave the direction and the targets with the details on the why. Now I won’t say this was easy, but what do we always say and preach? If we are in the middle of a trade plan wait it out and see how the market reacts.

If you #paytiently waited at 10:30 and 10:45am est on the 15min candle we got two candles where price based and held and pushed up from it. This was the queue - using the 4130 as the line in the sand or stop loss you could have entered at any point within these candles and just held it till we hit our targets.

Now note I also preach 1DTE or weeklies if trading options. Understand if you traded 0DTE’s you probably came under a bit of pressure. If you traded 1DTE’s or even weeklies you coasted sweat free on this trade. Have faith in the plan and the levels and more importantly go in with a plan on the trade and avoid 0DTE’s.

In this example I would have had a mental stop loss around 4125 or even break even at 4130. If I am wrong I am wrong, but I won’t pay to see it happen. Instead reassess, reevaluate and onto the next trade idea. Here is an analysis of today’s trade planning using the 15min chart on the SPX.

Here is a review of the intraday session using a 15min chart on the SPX.

Tonight in futures action we have major news potentially coming out of the BOJ and it’s monetary statement - aka their FOMC. As I mentioned in our chat room there is not a lot of hedging to the downside so if the market finds a reason to selloff it will. We haven’t seen the big players quite yet come in to defend at these levels. I am riding longs overnight, but I know my risk and using profits to trade with them. If I am wrong I am wrong, was willing to take a certain R/R and will move on to the next trade idea.

With that let’s get into our trade plan…

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SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

Action packed day full of news premarket and into the open. Could be a volatile open to the trading session. Just be paytient with the levels and rely on breakdowns or breakouts or failed ones.

With that said if I am a bull you want price to stay above 4150. Look for a failed breakdown where we may hit 4145…