October 22, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan
Weekly Market Overview
Well OPEX turned into a thriller. Nice wide ranges on the day. Clean breaks from our key critical levels we provided in each daily plan last week. This has been a fun ride.
So what’s next…Well there are a couple of complications that the market is assessing. There is the long standing view of rates higher and longer. You saw that reaction from the market last week when FED Chair Powell spoke and kept iterating that the FED is looking to keep rates higher in its continued fight with inflation. On the same path is if the FED does cut rates it means something has broken…
On the other side we have the ongoing conflict in Palestine/Israel that continues to potentially pull the US and even Iran into the fold which can blow things up for a risk off in equities.
We can’t predict nor do we know what will happen so we can only trade price. This is why I have become very selective of my swing trades and avoided any swings besides puts overnight last couple of weeks which was the right move as the market sold off due to increased volatility - vol. Until we see things cool down geopolitically or we have some positive earnings reports the market can be quite volatile and I would need to see a strong shift in sentiment to begin swinging calls.
While the chances are still high going back to my analysis a few weeks ago that we can test the 52 week high - this coming week is an important one for the bulls to take and hold key levels such as 4250 and 4300 for a chance to push price back up.
Until they can prove this and close on the daily above these levels I would be careful swinging any calls.
Monday we have no news, but PMI comes Tuesday. We have FED Chair Powell speaking after the bell on Wednesday with Home Sales Thursday and FED speaker. The big news event comes Friday with PCE and Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.
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SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)
No major news catalyst - so don’t be surprised if we get a choppy/sideways action kind of day.
Thus if you are bullish you want to see us hold 42..
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