November 9, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Market Recap

The market continues to chop in a very tight range. Looking at the weekly chart you can see that we have been trading in a 50pt range between 4347 and 4391.

A look at the weekly chart on the SPX where it has been trading in a tight range

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So what does this mean? It means we need to break above or below one of the sides of this weekly candle and it must hold for a more sustained rally or selloff. So mark these highs and lows and paytiently wait to react to these levels and compare where they land when we see our vanna data, volume profile, and orderblocks.

The market needs some kind of catalyst to move and at this moment and time it seems like the market is going through a bit of distribution and allowing certain players to enter before its next move.

I am going to keep our key levels we discussed in our weekly outlook earlier in te week.

First there is a lot of noise above spot and it will be choppy conditions between 4374 and 4400. So as we trade through these levels we just need to keep in mind of reversals and breakdowns/breakouts. Now once we clear this zone there is minimal noise up to 4450 which is what started the selloff back in September. It is then in this zone from 4453-4481 where we will get bumpy conditions again.

To the downside the key level is 4355, 4320, and 4299. A selloff back towards 4299 would actually be preferred for the bulls and allow for another area of consolidation. Should 4354 sell and we can’t recover then we close a gap and target 4320. Below this is where we have 4299. IF we lose - which I don’t think we will as an opinion - then we target 4194, which is last week’s POC and what I consider a LIS for flipping bearish for a more continued and sustained selloff medium term. The loss of this triggers us back towards 4132 and most likely breaks the lows set 2 weeks ago targeting 4067.

Based on what I am analyzing I think this week could be quite choppy and sideways as the market finds liquidity and an area for consolidation for the next move. So lock profits in or bring stop losses in to preserve profits. There will be moves especially intraday so keep an eye for 0DTE action as it could guide the market this week pretty heavily.

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11/9 SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

Expect more chop. The key for this week has been failed breakdowns and breakouts of our key levels. Continue to seek trades like this…

If you are bullish you want price above…