November 25 - ES Weekly Market Insights: Dealer Positions & Volume Profile Analysis!
Welcome to another weekly overview where we provide you with key levels to enter and target
Hello fellow traders. Welcome to another weekly overview of the ES/SPX/SPY market.
As a reminder we have officially partnered with Volland - available at https://vol.land - providing our weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis to subscribers there.
Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.
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Futures are pushing already and we have a short week with the US Thanksgiving Holiday on Thursday. Expect things to be slow and volume to be lower than normal...With that let's jump right in.
11/18 - Weekly Recap:
Last week our general lean was that IF we got and held above 5900 we would find ourselves pushing back up towards 5950 and then 5975. This analysis played out pretty well and the big factor on the week was volatility. While volatility started earlier in the week to lead a bit of choppiness it was once we found support at 5850 and 5860 after Wednesday's morning session that we bounced from these levels - tested 5900 again - and finally got our push up towards 5969 to close on the week with a high of 5972...
Furthermore we sent an update going into Tuesday's session suggesting the same - either find support below spot for a reversal OR wait to long 5900.
Market Moves with Volland
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Biggest News Catalysts on the Week
Mon - no catalyst
Tue - US Consumer Confidence, US New Home Sales, US Richmond Manufacturing Index
Wed - US GDP, US Unemployment Claims, US Durable Goods Orders, US Chicago PMI, US PCE, US Pending Home Sales, US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thur - Thanksgiving Holiday
Fri - no catalyst
Earnings
Weekly Options Expected Move
SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~65.15 points. That puts us at 6034.49 to the upside and 5904.19 to the downside.
Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.
Vanna Overview
We are getting more positive vanna coming back into the market with our aggregate vanna trend. We are still not quite in the clear, but this positive to see especially for any kind of year end rally...Remember aggregate vanna is a leading indicator. So I will use this to baseline some of my bias, but I don't use much on it to do weekly or intraday trading.
Let's kick into reviewing cumulative vanna exposure. This view is for all expirations.
The key to any kind of movement in this chart will come down to volatility - while we do have vanna put support below spot it is minimal and IF vol (volatility) increases we are going to enter and go right through that selling pressure zone. Just looking at this view we are quite bearish...
5900-5905 - major support and need VIX and a catalyst to keep pushing price below this level
5925-5960 - support IF we see VOL/VIX compress as we enter this zone
5965-5995 - sellers sit here ONLY with VIX/VOL increasing
Let's now take a look at this from a weekly view...
What we can see here on the weekly view is interesting - where the neutral chop zone from all expirations looks a bit different.
5900-6000 is where we seem to be stuck in a range on the weekly view
5925-5930 - major area of support
5950 - weekly support, but minor - it breaks we see 5925
6025-6030 - get and hold above 6000 and here is our next targets
6050 - next area of resistance above 6030
If we take a look at the weekly vanna strikes and chart we can zoom in on the specific strikes that are important...
You can clearly see this week is all about VIX/IV - it increases we go down and we sell towards 5925. We hold and get above 6000 then 6025 then 6050
Resistance:
5990 - positive vanna/magnet and pivot - stay and hold above this more than likely we head towards 6025-6030
6000 - negative vanna - resistance - while 5990 is important this is the next major level to get past and our way towards 6025-6030
6025-6030 - positive vanna - magnets and pivots for higher prices above to 6050
6040-6050 - positive vanna and negative vanna - magnet and area of resistance
Support:
5925-5900 - major zone of support
5885 - positive vanna/magnet - IF vol/vix increase this will be a potential target - I likely doubt that, but if there is unexpected VOL this is where we could go to
5870 - negative vanna - support
Looking at the all expiration vanna strike chart we find the following key levels...
Resistance:
5995-6000 - positive vanna and magnets - they won't be resistance if we continue to see VOL/VIX continue lower
6020-6025 - magnet and resistance - 6020 negative vanna and 6025 positive vanna
6050-6055 - magnets - massive positive vanna and getting through this zone will further need what I assume will be a compressed VIX by the time we get here...
Support:
5950 - magnet - IF VOL increases this is where it will want to sell price towards
5925-5900 - negative vanna's - will act as support unless there is a major catalyst to break it down
Vanna Summary
In summary I am long if we see the 5925-5900. 6000 is the key level to the upside for bulls to get more continuation up to target 6025 and then 6050.
Resistance:
5990-6000 - positive vanna and magnets - they won't be resistance if we continue to see VOL/VIX continue lower
6015-6020 - negative vanna - will be a speed bump on the road to price above - watch how VOL/VIX reacts at this level
6025-6030 - magnet and resistance - 6020 negative vanna and 6025 positive vanna
6050-6055 - magnets - massive positive vanna and getting through this zone will further need what I assume will be a compressed VIX by the time we get here...
Support:
5960 - minor support
5950 - magnet - IF VOL increases this is where it will want to sell price towards
5945 - minor support
5925-5900 - negative vanna's - will act as support unless there is a major catalyst to break it down
Gamma Overview
Key Levels on the week are...
5900 - massive tower
5920
5995-6000
6025
6050-6055
ES Volume Profile Overview
> These are ES levels and NOT SPX - subtract 18pts to get SPX levels
TLDR
6015 marks a key pivot and futures has sold off at this level which is the weekly point of control from 11/11 and we go target the VAH from that week at 6043
5960 - last week's value area high - if bulls are to defend a level it is this one
Key Levels
6043 - 11/11 weekly value area high
6015 - 11/11 weekly point of control
5960 - weekly value area high
5920 - weekly point of control
5886 - weekly value area low
5876-5809 - low volume node - this is where our buyers came in with strength last week and is a key level we pushed from during election night
11/25 ES Weekly Trade Plan
TLDR
Continuing on our trend we should see ourselves testing near ATH's this week. Look for dips to buy and that zone of 5925-5900 is an amazing opportunity to long unless we have some VOL/VIX come in that is unexpected.
Key Levels for the Week
5900-5925 - major support
5950-5965 - next zone of support I would buy dips on
6000 - stay above this and we are all but certain to target 6025 then 6050
Bullish Bias:
If there is a failed breakdown of 5925 OR 5950 target 5995-6000, 6015-6020, 6025 (acts as pivot), 6030, 6050-6055
Above 6000 target 6015-6020, 6025 (acts as pivot), 6030, 6050-6055
In case we do not have a failed breakdown and just push above 6000
Bearish Bias:
I don't think this is the week to be thinking bearish and thus if you are shorting it should be scalps and intraday so review the daily plans for a bearish bias outlook.
Any updates to the plan or levels will be provided in the Volland Discord Room. Keep an eye on Volland and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.
ES December contract value is approx. 18pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.03.
As a reminder we have officially partnered with Volland - available at https://vol.land - providing our weekly and daily ES/SPX analysis to subscribers there.
Get our weekly and daily plans while also learning how to use dealer positions to have better trading success.
Remember use promo code DMLIVE200 to get $200 off your 3 months at Volland.
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Disclaimer:
The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.