November 14, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Market Recap

Excellent action in the markets as our futures traders pushed through targeting our first bearish trade idea…

Below 4410 target 4395

Additionally, we said this about a key zone in yesterday’s trade plan…

The zone between 4420-4395 is complete chop IMO. I would only be playing breakouts and breakdowns or failed ones in this zone. I wouldn’t want to be caught in any reversals and I would keep my stop losses tight to avoid any major losses.

The market then opened at 4406 - within the trade plan above - and then targeting a low of 4393, before it reversed and we had a failed breakdown and our second trade idea…

If there is a failed breakdown of 4395-4400 target 4420

It is here at 4420 our target where we then traded within a 10pt range the rest of the session never breaking the key bullish level for more continuation.

For those who haven’t subscribed this is the kind of work we do here. For as little as $15/month we provide daily trade plans for intraday traders while also providing great educational content to our subscribers.

All in all I think we had a solid plan and when we stick to our convictions because we lay out a plan and understand it we can react. Congrats traders and those who went long and waited paytiently.

I will leave an overview of our key levels from the weekly plan below as a reminder for us everyday. Note one change is that I now consider this 4395 level weaker with the 4420 zone also weakening. A setup is occurring and until it occurs play level to level target to target.

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11/13 Weekly Key Levels

Let’s now review some of our key levels in SPX and some analysis on the charts. First and foremost the 10ema has crossed over the 50ema (bullish) on the daily chart - this was the last major timeframe where we had the 50ema over the 10ema (bearish). This cross which occurred late last week puts as at 4346.

Additionally the 4360-4350 zone gets my attention. We have a cluster of volume profile levels here and along with those an orderblock. Thus this zone becomes my bull vs bears LIS for the week. A close below we go down further and a hold above it pushes us higher.

Below 4360-4350 most likely targets 4300 and then 4230. So this level is key on the weekly to determine the trend and direction for the market over the short term.

Next up is the 4395-4380 zone. It is weaker than the 4360-4350 level, but intraday Monday I will be watching to see if we get a reaction to this zone and how it behaves. If we break below we target that 4360-4350 zone then.

The zone between 4420-4395 is complete chop IMO. I would only be playing breakouts and breakdowns or failed ones in this zone. I wouldn’t want to be caught in any reversals and I would keep my stop losses tight to avoid any major losses.

Above 4420 we then tread towards 4450 where we could face some resistance and consolidation. Should we slice through 4450 and close above it then the chase towards 4465 then 4480 occurs.

So in summary our key levels on the week are:

• 4480

• 4465

• 4450

• 4420-4391 - chop zone

• 4360-4350 - must hold for bulls

• 4330

Now let’s jump into the trade plan…

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11/14 SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

The trend sitting news tomorrow starts pre-market with CPI data out. For an excellent read on this topic I suggest you visit Steven Anastasiou’s excellent write up on the topic. Overnight we also have the UK unemployment and wage earnings coming out at 2am est.

Thus, if you are bullish you need price to break and hold above…