March 31, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

PCE & End of Month

Good evening/day/morning traders. Another day where the majority of the move occurred overnight in futures with a selloff that didn’t close the gap up.

Last session trading recap

I had a lotto put overnight that I closed red - when I do these lotto overnights I typically trade SPY then. Unfortunately, the trade didn’t go my way, but no worries. We waited paytiently for the levels to trigger and we were able to take a short that yielded $700 in profit. All in all a good day allowing traders to trade both sides.

Dark Matter @DarkMatterTrade

Great trading opportunities. Two ideas hit: - Above 4035 target 4050 - If there is a failed breakout of 4050 target 4030 The trade plan provided directions both ways just waiting #paytiently for us to react to. I took one trade netting $700 $SPX $SPY $TSLA $NVDA $AAPL $QQQ

Dark Matter @DarkMatterTrade

3/30 $SPX $ES $SPY Trade Plan: Bearish bias: - Below 4030 target 4005 - If there is a failed breakout of 4050 target 4030 - If there is a breakdown of 3995 target 3950 Bullish bias: - Above 4035 target 4050 - If there is a breakout of 4060 target 4075 https://t.co/isZEUpkjyQ… https://t.co/9fjjnCS9KE

Remember…Stay #paytient, compound, the gains will ultimately come. Put in the work, prepare, and it will pay off.

I enjoy interacting and learning from other traders so continue to share your trades, ideas, and how you use this trade plan by messaging me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

Our major news catalyst is pre-market…

1. 8:30am est - PCE

2. 9:45am est - Chicago PMI

3. 10:00am est - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

4. 3:05pm est - FOMC Member Williams Speaks

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES values are approx. 30pts more than the SPX levels shared below.

Bullish bias:

1. If there is a failed breakdown of 4000 target 4015

   1. If PCE comes in hot keep a tight stop loss - risky trade

2. If there is a failed breakdown of 3975 target 3995

3. Above 4065 is a tough call…the data just doesn’t show us going above, but if we do look for 4080 then 4100

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4030 target 4000

2. If there is a failed breakout of 4065-50 target 4030

3. If there is a breakdown of 4000 target 3980

4. If there is a breakdown of 3975 target 3950

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SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Alright, let’s take a bit of time to clean up our key levels…

3970-50 is a critical zone for the bulls to hold. This zone has been hammered with dark pools all week and this zone has acted as a major support zone where price has reversed from.

4000 continues to be a key level for the bulls to hold and continue their fight.

4065 is a MAJOR Gamma level and the JP Morgan collar trade. Watch this level and how it reacts…

The trendline from the high of February was breached and we closed above it. This is a key trendline if broken could take us back towards 3900 (not 0DTE)…

SPX Trendline from the lows of March 2023. It has been tested 6 times and has kept the SPX supportive each time. We also have the downtrend line acting as resistance since February’s high which was breached this week…

Below Spot:

1. 3950-70 - key dark pool level

   1. 3950 - negative vanna

   2. 3948 - March monthly POC

2. 3979 - 3/27 weekly VAL

3. 4018-4007 - OB (1HR chart)

4. 4000 - LVN from 3/29 Gap Up and 2/27 weekly VAH

Above Spot:

1. 4065 - negative vanna and positive gamma

2. 4071-4080 - OB (2HR chart)

   1. 4070-4085 - negative vanna’s

3. 4080-4090 - FVG (1HR chart)

4. 4100 - negative vanna

Dark Pool Levels

We need to pay attention to some key levels that have Dark Pool buildup. Mark them on your chart as key levels that we should pay attention to. Note I combine my dark pool analysis from multiple sources as I don’t get a clear picture from just one always - for this I use Quant Data and Tradytics.

1. 4048 - (403.63) - $1.1B was reported on 3/30

2. 4025 - (401.34) - $1.3B was reported on 3/30

3. 3950-70 - (395.62) - Over $8B has been printed at this zone

   1. $3B was reported on Friday

   2. $1.5B was reported on Monday

   3. $1B was reported Tuesday

   4. $2.6B was reported Wednesday

4. 3940-45 - (393.40) $1.81B was reported on Friday

5. 3910-15 - (390.11) a key dark pool level that kept the market supportive

I like the below chart view from Tradytics and will keep a view of it from the previous day so we can monitor the changes to the levels…

3/30 SPY Darkpool Levels

3/29 SPY Darkpool Levels

Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break.

1. 4060-4066 - FVG (1HR chart)

2. 4071-4080 - OB (2HR chart)

3. 4080-4090 - FVG (1HR chart)

4. 4102-4117 - FVG (2HR chart)

5. 4136-4148 - OB (2HR chart)

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break.

1. 4022-4018 - FVG (2HR chart)

2. 4018-4007 - OB (1HR chart)

3. 4006-3971 - FVG (2HR chart)

4. 3877-3844 - OB (2HR chart)

Volume Profile

Let’s review the volume profile and some key levels there. If you are unfamiliar with the Volume Profile I highly suggest reviewing some YouTube videos or reading this quick overview on it.

Some keywords to be aware of:

• VAH = value area high

• VAL = value area low

• POC = point of control

For a more detailed view see the trade plan from 3/28. This is our latest analysis of the volume profile:

• The 3/27 weekly POC has shifted to 4050 and is near the VAH at 4057

  • 3979 is the VAL

• On the March monthly profile…

  • VAH = 4020 - we are out of balance on the monthly - if price continues to break away from here we could target the naked POC at 4136

  • POC = 3948

  • VAL = 3903

• 3951 is last weeks POC - a level of interest

March 28, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~84.66 points. SPY’s expected move is ~9.15. Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

We tagged the upper range of the weekly move. This will be a key level to keep an eye out for…

SPX’s Weekly Option Expected Move for Week of 3/27

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VIX Update

Let’s review the VIX chart. VIX continued it’s selloff majorly today, but it did hold a key OB and area of “demand” for it. The VIX is at a key critical juncture and any further good news could crush the VIX some more. This one is on the watch for sure…

We are also testing a trendline from February where the VIX has bounced from multiple times…

Key levels…

Above Spot:

1. 19.50-19.89

2. 20.43-21.07

3. 24.36-26.13

Below Spot:

1. 18.72-18.61

2. 17.32-16.91

3. 16.03-15.43

4. 15.43-14.97

Key VIX Levels

Remember, typically VIX going down correlates with a uptrend in the market and vice versa for a downtrend in the market.

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Vol.land Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

As we are in a window of weakness with Vanna so we cannot solely rely on these levels. It is imperative that for the next two weeks we look at key Gamma levels, orderblocks, dark pools and the VIX.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4055 - negative vanna

2. 4065 - positive vanna

3. 4070-4085 - negative vanna’s

4. 4090 - positive vanna

5. 4100 - negative vanna

6. 4110-4120 - negative vanna’s

Below Spot:

1. 4030 - negative vanna

2. 4025-4005 - positive vanna

3. 4000 - negative vanna

4. 3995-3980 - positive vanna

5. 3975 - negative vanna

6. 3970-3955 - positive vanna

7. 3950 - negative vanna

8. 3925 - negative vanna

9. 3900 - positive vanna

10. 3855 - negative vanna

Aggregate Vanna data from Volland

Gamma and Delta-Adjusted Gamma (DAG)

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support

Above Spot:

1. 4060-4065 - positive Gamma

2. 4090 - positive Gamma

3. 4125 - positive Gamma

4. Dealers must buy between 4030-3905

Below Spot:

1. 4030 - positive Gamma

2. 4000 - positive Gamma

3. 3975 - positive Gamma

4. 3950 - positive Gamma

5. 3925 - positive Gamma

6. 3855 - positive Gamma

7. Dealers must sell above 4060

Aggregate Gamma data from Volland

Dealer buying vs selling pressure - positive notional value = buying - negative notional value = selling

Charm

While Charm is on “vacation” I will continue to share the data just for observation purposes.

Charm is negative on SPX. This suggests that Charm will have little a more bullish impact on SPX.

SPX Charm Notional Total Value shows more negative total notional value - bullish signal

When reviewing Charm we also need to account for SPY’s charm. It is leaning bearish.

SPY Charm Notional Total Value shows positive Charm - bearish

Between the totals of SPY and SPX, SPX charm will outweigh SPY. When they are in sync that further adds to the charm impact. Keep in mind the total notional value of SPX should be multiplied by 10 for comparison to SPY.

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Final Take

Tomorrow is all about PCE…data comes out an hour prior to market open and could dictate the trend in the day. The JP collar at 4065 looms and during futures we actually hit those levels and sold off from there so far. That will be a key level on watch tomorrow.

Stay #paytient and react to the key levels - no predictions! Good luck traders.

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I am going to share my key rules to intraday trading in the end of the plan moving forward to build better habits and allowing you to grow as a better trader.

My Intraday Trading Rules

1. I do not trade within the first half hour UNLESS I am in a trade from the prior session and looking to close the trade or we have a major gap or a key level already broken

   1. I let the initial balance do its thing - I am just a small fish in a large ocean of traders so let's let them fight it out

   2. I then wait for key levels targeting one level to the next and taking profits at each one.

      1. If there are key levels that are 10pts apart that is when I have scalping mindset and anything above 10pts I want to give it the room to hit the price target with a 5 pt buffer to take profits once we reach within 5 pts of a target - I also tighten my stop loss once at 10-20% profit with the goal of never allowing trades to go red when I have a nice profit)

2. I supply options greeks with OB (order blocks) and FVG (fair value gaps) otherwise known as Smart Money Concepts

3. When I am scalping - ie targeting 10pt trade levels I will take profits and never go more than 10% red. Simple as that, know your trade plan strategy and the risk. When you are wrong you are wrong and reset

4. For 20pt trade level targets I will increase my stop losses to 20% and allow more of the trade to play in the event I entered too early

5. I try - key word try ha - avoid trading lunch hours defined as 12pm to 2 pm est. Money for the most part unless you are scalping - is made in the first 2 hours of the trading day and the last 2 hours

6. I always stick to two EMA’s on my chart and that’s the 10/50 EMA’s

   1. When the 10ema is above 50ema we are bullish

   2. When the 10ema is below the 50ema we are bearish

   3. Go put these on your charts and when you view them on timeframes less than the daily timeframe you will see the power they provide

   4. For scalpers out there the smaller timeframes provide great opportunities to scalp 5-10pt moves

There are more we could discuss including volume profile, low volume nodes that I think are great strategies to compliment option greeks. Maybe in the future we can include more details.

Trading is not for the unprepared. It is critical you abide to a strategy and checklist and walk into every trade with a plan. Without a plan you are simply gambling and have a better chance at the slot machines. There are more nuances to my weekly and daily checklists, but I think this provides a good read for now and we will/can continue adding to it.

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To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

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