June 29, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan
Good evening/day/morning traders. Yesterday’s trade plan gave us a nice range hitting bottom the low and high of the day.
In our trade plan we said:
Below 4375 target 4360
Above 4375 target 4390
Overnight in futures we sold off hitting our downside target and once the market opened it held the 4360 level and then at the 10:10am est we hit that low again and began to rally targeting the high of 4390. Nice range bound action giving you two great trade ideas to play down and then up!
Tomorrow the bulls will want to keep price above 4370. If they are able to do this we will target 4395 with a overshoot to 4400. Dark pool has consolidated in that 4376 price and this level will play a pivotal turn to the next leg up or down.
For the bears they will need to get price down below 4365 and keep it below this price in order to target 4350. This 4350 level is another major support level with negative vanna and over $9B in dark pool print.
In reviewing the stock market heat map we can see that TSLA, AAPL, and GOOGL were tickers who lead the market. Interesting note as we mentioned in yesterday’s plan that if NVDA held 397.5 it would be bought up and that’s exactly what we got in the premarket and NVDA rallied from there to hit a high of day of 418. Impressive run by this ticker!
Let’s jump into the trade plan.
For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.
News Catalyst
2:30am est - Fed Chair Powell Speaks
8:30am est - GDP
8:30am est - Unemployment Claims
10:00am est - Pending Home Sales
For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar
SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan
Bullish bias:
Above 4380 target 4395
If there is a failed breakdown of 4370 target 4395
If there is a breakout of 4395 target 4410
Bearish bias:
Below 4365 target 4350
If there is a failed breakout of 4415 target 4400
If there is a breakdown of 4350 target 4325
As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.
Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 41pts more than the SPX levels shared below. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.01.
SPX - The Why Behind the Plan
Key Levels
Above Spot:
4395 - negative vanna
4388-4392 - OB (15min chart)
4390 midline
4396 - 439.22 - $3.32B - dark pool
4410-4415 - negative vanna
4400-4409 - FVG (30min chart)
4440 - negative vanna
4434-4440 - OB (15min chart)
4437 midline
Below Spot:
4370 - negative vanna - 0DTE
4367-4360 - OB (15min chart)
4364 midline
4376-4369 - 437.18-436.54 - $19.43B - dark pool
4350 - negative vanna
4344-4328 - OB (1hr chart)
4336 midline
4340-4336 - 433.65-433.19 - $9.39B - dark pool
4325 - negative vanna
4333-4318 - FVG (2hr chart)
4325 premium level
4315 - negative vanna
4316 - 431.26 - $4.19B - dark pool
Dark Pool Levels
We didn’t have any major changes to our dark pool levels from today. That 4376-4369 continues to be a key level I am watching in the dark pools and this level once consolidation has finished will be a trigger to our next leg.
4396 - 439.22 - $3.32B
4376-4369 - 437.18-436.54 - $19.43B
4340-4336 - 433.65-433.19 - $9.39B
4316 - 431.26 - $4.19B
4300 - 429.64 - $6.81B
4285-4283 - 428.09-427.92 - $7.46B
4205 - 420.16-420.03 - $8.05B
4196-80 - 419.20-417.60 - $16B
We need to pay attention to these dark pool levels. Mark them on your chart as key levels that we should pay attention to. Remember the levels where we see dark pool prints greater than $4B should peak our interest. I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.
Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break.
Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.
4388-4392 - OB (15min chart)
4390 midline
4400-4409 - FVG (30min chart)
4434-4440 - OB (15min chart)
4437 midline
4438-4470 - OB (4hr chart)
4455 midline
4475-4520 - OB (4hr chart)
4497 midline
Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.
4367-4360 - OB (15min chart)
4364 midline
4344-4328 - OB (1hr chart)
4336 midline
4333-4318 - FVG (2hr chart)
4325 premium level
4304-4297 - OB (1hr chart)
4301 midline
Weekly Option Expected Move
SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~53.63 points. SPY’s expected move is ~5.58. That puts us at 4401.95 for the upside and 4294.69 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 438.79 and 427.63.
Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.
Volland Data
For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.
Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet
Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.
Positive vanna - will act as magnet
Negative vanna - will act as repellent
When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.
Above Spot:
4395 - negative vanna
4410-4415 - negative vanna
4440 - negative vanna
Below Spot:
4370 - negative vanna - 0DTE
4350 - negative vanna
4325 - negative vanna
4315 - negative vanna
4300 - negative vanna
Gamma and Delta-Adjusted Gamma (DAG)
Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance - meaning that dealers want to push against the move
Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support - meaning that dealers will want to support price at these levels
Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…
Above Spot:
4380-4390 - positive gamma
4400-4405 - positive gamma
4420-4465 - positive gamma
Below Spot:
4350 - positive gamma
4325 - positive gamma
4315 - positive gamma
4300 - positive gamma
Charm
Remember if IV is not expanding charm will start to overtake Vanna especially 0DTE as it comes closer to expiration.
Charm total notional value is bullish - negative is bullish and positive bearish - take the total of the far left and far right values.
The 0DTE view on SPX Charm shows a bullish bias.
Note that the total notional value of SPX is 10x. Thus it’s charm will outweigh that of SPY’s. For the full charm effect to play out ideally we want to see SPX and SPY in sync.
So what does SPY’s charm tell us? It is leaning bearish at an aggregate view.
If we look at SPY for 0DTE we are seeing a bullish charm view.
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.