June 14, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Good evening/day/morning traders. As they say someone always knows…Monday’s late session squeeze/rally continued into today where the CPI came below the forecast. We gapped about 20pts at the open, had profit takers and then traded sideways for most of the day - yes some great scalping opportunities if you are into technical trading, but otherwise not much on the day today to trade.

Tomorrow the volatility will come both premarket with PPI data coming out and then more importantly we have FOMC at 2pm est. I will be frank, giving levels and trade plans for FOMC is one of the hardest events to plan for. You will see a fakeout at first and more times then not after it the real move comes, but that fakeout will drive wild swings in mins.

I honestly hate trading FOMC and think that price is purely driven by the words of one man and all the data in the world will find a way to get you into a bad trade. With that said if you are trading tomorrow’s FOMC keep it light and know your risk. We will always have more and better opportunities don’t give away your profits.

Note: I am starting to focus and test our trade plans with some individual tickers - last week I shared ENPH and this week tested it with ADBE. Once I feel comfortable with the strategy and usage of it on individual tickers I will share some of those ideas on here. These plays take paytience to develop and having to wait for specific levels to hit and see how the react. I couple this with Volland data to provide me with the key levels. More to come over the next few weeks on this. So if I am not giving as many intraday updates it is because I am using that free time I have to test on these individual tickers.

With that, let’s jump into the trade plan.

For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

1. 8:30am est - PPI

2. 2pm est - FOMC Statement

3. 2:30pm est - FOMC Press Conference

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

---

---

SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 47pts more than the SPX levels shared below. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels below and divide by 10.01.

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4380 target 4395

2. If there is a breakout of 4395 target 4430

   1. See Volland30

   2. Use VOLD indicator for trend continuation

   3. VIX should be decreasing

3. If there is a failed breakdown of 4350-55 target 4370

   1. See Volland30

   2. Use VOLD indicator for trend reversal

   3. VIX should be decreasing

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4355 target 4320

2. If there is a breakdown of 4320 target 4300

   1. See Volland30

   2. Use VOLD indicator for trend continuation

   3. VIX should be increasing

3. If there is a failed breakout of 4375-80 target 4355

   1. See Volland30

   2. Use VOLD indicator for trend reversal

   3. VIX should be increasing

---

---

SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4370-4375 - negative vanna

2. 4385-4427 - FVG (4hr chart)

   1. 4405 midline

3. 4435 - negative vanna

4. 4470-4475 - negative vanna

   1. 4438-4470 - OB (4hr chart)

      1. 4456 midline

5. 4490 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4365 - negative vanna

2. 4355 - negative vanna

   1. 4349-4339 - FVG (15min chart)

      1. 4344 midline

   2. 4340 - 433.65 - 4.49B

3. 4320 - negative vanna

   1. 4332-4318 - FVG (2hr chart)

      1. 4326 midline

4. 4300 - negative vanna

   1. 4304-4297 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4301 midline

   2. 4300 - 429.64 - $6.81B

5. 4285 - negative vanna

   1. 4286-4281 - OB (15min chart)

      1. 4284 midline

   2. 4285-4283 - 428.09-427.92 - $7.46B

6. 4270 - negative vanna

   1. 4273-4264 - OB (1hr & 2hr chart)

      1. 4268 midline

7. 4269-4261 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4265 midline

8. 4250-4245 - negative vanna

   1. 4254-4223 - FVG (1hr chart)

      1. 4238 midline

9. 4222-4212 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4217 midline

10. 4194-4179 - OB (2hr chart)

    1. 4187 midline

    2. 4205 - 420.16-420.03 - $8.05B

    3. 4196-80 - 419.20-417.60 - $16B

---

Dark Pool Levels

The 4295-4300 amassed over $6B of dark pool prints on Friday. This will continue to be a key area of accumulation and will kickoff our next leg - to either the upside or downside.

1. 4340 - 433.65 - 4.49B

2. 4300 - 429.64 - $6.81B

3. 4285-4283 - 428.09-427.92 - $7.46B

4. 4205 - 420.16-420.03 - $8.05B

5. 4196-80 - 419.20-417.60 - $16B

6. 4160-56 - 415.66-415.28 - $9.84B

7. 4150-25 - 414.64-412.18 - $23.31B

8. 4120-07 - 411.59-410.34 - $17.13B

9. 4100-4096 - 409.62-409.22 - $8.56B

Dark Pool Levels via Quant Data for 6/13

We need to pay attention to these dark pool levels. Mark them on your chart as key levels that we should pay attention to. Remember the levels where we see dark pool prints greater than $2-4B should peak our interest. I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

---

Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4385-4427 - FVG (4hr chart)

   1. 4405 midline

2. 4438-4470 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4456 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4349-4339 - FVG (15min chart)

   1. 4344 - midline

2. 4332-4318 - FVG (2hr chart)

   1. 4326 midline

3. 4304-4297 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4301 midline

4. 4286-4281 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4284 midline

5. 4273-4264 - OB (1hr & 2hr chart)

   1. 4268 midline

6. 4269-4261 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4265 midline

7. 4254-4223 - FVG (1hr chart)

   1. 4238 midline

8. 4222-4212 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4217 midline

9. 4194-4179 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4187 midline

10. 4161-4151 - OB (2hr chart)

    1. 4155 midline

Green Fill: Bullish FVG’ or Demand - Green Outlines: OB’s or Demand; Blue Fill: Bearish FVG or Supply - Blue Outline: OB’s or Supply

---

Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~63.76 points. SPY’s expected move is ~7.14. Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

SPX Weekly Expected Move for Week of 6/12

---

---

Volland Data

The Volland team now provides new product tiers providing you with more intraday updates. This is an amazing asset to have intraday to see how dealers are positioning themselves adding more conviction to our levels and changes to the key levels for the 2nd half of the trading session. Take a look by visiting the Volland site for their various options - including Volland 30 - the package I have subscribed giving me updates every 30 mins.

Volland's new subscription packages

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

---

Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4370-4375 - negative vanna

2. 4435 - negative vanna

3. 4470-4475 - negative vanna

4. 4490 - negative vanna

5. 4500 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4365 - negative vanna

2. 4355 - negative vanna

3. 4320 - negative vanna

4. 4300 - negative vanna

5. 4285 - negative vanna

6. 4270 - negative vanna

7. 4250-4245 - negative vanna

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland

---

Gamma and Delta-Adjusted Gamma (DAG)

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support

Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…

Above Spot:

1. 4380-4430 - positive gamma

Below Spot:

1. 4350-4325 - positive gamma

2. 4315-4300 - positive gamma

Aggregate view of Gamma levels

---

Charm

Remember if IV is not expanding charm will start to overtake Vanna especially 0DTE as it comes closer to expiration.

Charm total notional value is bullish - negative is bullish and positive bearish - take the total of the far left and far right values.

Aggregate View - negative total notional value shows bullish charm

The 0DTE view on SPX Charm shows a bullish bias.

SPX Charm - 0DTE View

Note that the total notional value of SPX is 10x. Thus it’s charm will outweigh that of SPY’s. For the full charm effect to play out ideally we want to see SPX and SPY in sync.

So what does SPY’s charm tell us? It is leaning bearish at an aggregate view.

SPY Charm - Aggregate View

If we look at SPY for 0DTE we are seeing a bullish charm view.

SPY Charm - 0DTE View

---

---

My Intraday Trading Rules

---

---

To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

---