July 28, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

7/27 Trading Session Review

As I tweeted in the morning I mentioned that 4600 was the key level and we opened the session at 4602 climbing up to 4607 where I stayed paytient. Our LIS was 4600 and if that was lost it would bring with it a larger selloff.

That’s exactly what we got and while I missed the first break of 4600 I came back in time to see the last rally of the day and joined the bears at 4595 riding it to our price target 4575. SPX then continued to selloff another 47pts. While I had a runner left I cut it at 4565. I did ride puts on ADBE as well and closed those near the lows of the day.

I closed all of my puts not wanting to be caught in the middle of the BoJ news - which at time of writing at 11:50pm news from BoJ was positive only to be sold off from a high of ES 4583 to 4562. All within a 5 min move! Gotta love it some of the most exciting futures action in some time!

Tomorrow is the last day of the trading week so if you are green on the week take it easy. Don’t be a hero and give it away.

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SPX/SPY/ES Overview (TL;DR)

Futures show a potential gap up, but we do have key data coming out in premarket and then at 10am est.

For the bears they want to push price below 4535 or contain a breakout above 4545 to target 4520.

For the bulls they want price above 4555 to target 4570. Above 4570 target 4585.

Let’s jump into the trade plan.

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ADBE

As long as it continues to hold 510 we will bounce between it and 525.

1. Above 512.5 target 525

2. If there is a failed breakout of 525 target 520

3. If there is a failed breakout of 520 target 515

ADBE Vanna view via Volland

$ADBE chart - overview of key orderblocks and fair value gaps

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MSFT

Two key levels I am watching on MSFT…That is 327.5 and 332.5. If we break 332.5 this could present a trade targeting 335-337.5. Leave runners at 335. Otherwise, if we sell at the open we will target 327.5 where price could find support going back towards 330. Below 327.5 we start a leg down towards 320.

1. Above 332.5 target 335

2. Below 325 target 320

Aggregate view of MSFT Vanna via Volland

$MSFT chart - overview of key orderblocks

For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

1. 8:30am est - Core PCE

2. 8:30am est - Employment Cost Index

3. 10:00am est - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

4. 10:00am est - Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

The most anticipated earnings releases scheduled for the week are Microsoft #MSFT, Meta #META, Alphabet #GOOGL, AT&T #T, Verizon #VZ, Enphase Energy #ENPH, Boeing #BA, Ford #F, Coco-Cola #KO, and Intel #INTC.

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4555 target 4570

2. If there is a breakout of 4570 target 4585

3. If there is a breakout of 4585 target 4600

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4535 target 4520

2. If there is a failed breakout of 4545 target 4520

3. If there is a breakdown of 4520 target 4510

As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 27pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.03.

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SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4545 - negative vanna

2. 4570 - negative vanna

   1. 4555-4570 - FVG (30min chart)

      1. 4563 premium level

   2. 4554-4567 - 455.10-454.40 - $21.64B

3. 4580-4585 - negative vanna

   1. 4585-4597 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4591 midline

4. 4595-4600 - negative vanna

5. 4610-4617 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4613 midline

Below Spot:

1. 4538-4534 - 452.45-452.14 - $12.68B

2. 4520 - negative vanna

   1. 4529-4520 - OB (30min chart)

      1. 4525 midline

   2. 4522-4509 - 450.89-449.62 - $14.81B

3. 4510 - negative vanna

   1. 4511-4500 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4506 midline

4. 4495 - negative vanna

   1. 4498-4493 - OB (15min chart)

      1. 4495 midline

5. 4480 - negative vanna

   1. 4481-4466 - OB (1hr & 2hr chart)

      1. 4473 midline

   2. 4471 - 445.84 - $3.17B

6. 4460-4455 - negative vanna

   1. 4453-4438 - 444.02-442.48 - $20.06B

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Dark Pool Levels

Another +$2B of dark pool came in at the 4567 level where we can clearly see that we are accumulating between two key zones there and 4538.

1. 4567-4554 - 455.40-454.10 - $21.64B

2. 4538-4534 - 452.45-452.14 - $12.68B

3. 4522-4509 - 450.89-449.62 - $14.81B

4. 4471 - 445.84 - $3.17B

5. 4453-4438 - 444.02-442.48 - $20.06B

6. 4421-4393 - 440.85-438.06 - $25.11B

7. 4384-4375 - 437.18-436.20 - $24.71B

8. 4349-4344 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B

9. 4325-4292 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B

I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

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Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break. I use Sonarlab’s indicator on Tradingview to plot these.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4555-4570 - FVG (30min chart)

   1. 4563 premium level

2. 4585-4597 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4591 midline

3. 4610-4617 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4613 midline

4. 4652-4665 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)

   1. 4658 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4529-4520 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4525 midline

2. 4511-4500 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4506 midline

3. 4498-4493 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4495 midline

4. 4481-4466 - OB (1hr & 2hr chart)

   1. 4473 midline

5. 4408-4399 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4404 midline

Green Fill: Bullish FVG’ or Demand - Green Outlines: OB’s or Demand; Blue Fill: Bearish FVG or Supply - Blue Outline: OB’s or Supply

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Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~60.84 points. SPY’s expected move is ~6.22. That puts us at 4597.19 to the upside and 4475.51 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 458.40 and 445.96.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

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Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

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Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4545 - negative vanna

2. 4570 - negative vanna

3. 4580-4585 - negative vanna

4. 4595-4600 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4520 - negative vanna

2. 4510 - negative vanna

3. 4495 - negative vanna

4. 4480 - negative vanna

5. 4460-4455 - negative vanna

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland

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Gamma

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance - meaning that dealers want to push against the move

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support - meaning that dealers will want to support price at these levels

Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…

Above Spot:

1. 4540 - positive gamma

2. 4550-4565 - positive gamma

3. 4575-4580 - positive gamma

4. 4605 - positive gamma

Below Spot:

1. 4520 - positive gamma

2. 4510 - positive gamma

3. 4500-4490 - positive gamma

4. 4480 - positive gamma

Aggregate view of Gamma via Volland

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Charm

Remember if IV is not expanding charm will start to overtake Vanna especially 0DTE as it comes closer to expiration.

For all expiry’s, Charm total notional value is bullish - negative is bullish and positive bearish - take the total of the far left and far right values. This is a longer term view of the market and suggests we find key dips to buy to long.

The 0DTE view on SPX Charm shows a bearish trend. Currently, looking at charm we see a anti-GEX paradigm which is a bearish 0DTE study from the Volland group, which suggests price will target 4520.

Note that 0DTE changes throughout the day and Volland provides updates throughout the day.

SPX Charm - 0DTE View

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My Intraday Trading Rules

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To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

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