July 20, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan
Good evening/day/morning traders. Today’s price action after the gap up favored the bears intraday. We opened up and immediately headed to our first target at 4575 where price was not finding acceptance above 4575 - each time faced with sellers and not a single 15 or 30min candle closing above that key level.
Before we get into the SPX trade plan let’s do an update on a few tickers.
ADBE
ADBE as we tweeted saw a push up that wasn’t sustained and it then faced a selloff towards 525 - one of our lines in the sand. We are now at this level and this is an important level for the bulls to hold if they want a chance at 550. We are also at 525 testing the channel price broke out from.
Above 525 target 550 - expect bumpy roads at 530-534 and 541-543
Below 525 target 515 - expect bumpy roads at 520-518
ENPH
As we tweeted on ENPH bulls needed to hold 182.5 and they did this multiple times in Tuesday’s session and opened with a gap. As long as the bulls hold 185 target 187.5 and then 195. Below 185 I am target 182.5 then 180. We also have an uptrend and a down trend line. Combining the two it looks like a bearish pennant.
Above 185 target 187.5 then 195
Below 185 target 182.5 then 180
MSFT
It is coming to a key level. As long as 352.5 max 350 target 372.5. Bears have work to do, below 352.5 target 350 and then 347.5. 350 is a major support level and I would be careful with traps and a reversal out of this level.
Above 350 target 372.5
Below 352.5 target 350 then 347.5
Overview (TL;DR)
Based on the data it seems like tomorrow will bring some sideways action with quick reversals out of key levels. Ultimately, tomorrow is best traded waiting for failed breakouts or breakdowns and taking 10-15 point moves and trading with less risk than you normally would.
If there is a failed breakdown of 4550 target 4570
If there is a failed breakout of 4580 target 4560
Let’s jump into the trade plan.
For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.
News Catalyst
8:30am est - Unemployment Claims
8:30am est - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00am est - Existing Home Sales
Earnings season officially has begin. Here are the key earnings to keep an eye for.
For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar
SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan
Bullish bias:
Above 4570 target 4585
If there is a failed breakdown of 4550 target 4570
If there is a breakout of 4595 target 4615
Bearish bias:
Below 4535 target 4515
If there is a failed breakout of 4580 target 4560
If there is a breakdown of 4515 target 4500
As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.
Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 32pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.03.
SPX - The Why Behind the Plan
Key Levels
Above Spot:
4570 - negative vanna
4566-4583 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)
4575 midline
4590 - negative vanna
4589-4597 - OB (30min chart)
4593 midline
4615 - negative vanna
4610-4617 - OB (30min chart)
4613 midline
Below Spot:
4555-4535 - negative vanna
4554 - 454.10 - $7.56B
4515 - negative vanna
4529-4520 - OB (30min chart)
4525 midline
4522-4509 - 450.89-449.62 - $14.81B
4500 - negative vanna
4498-4493 - OB (15min chart)
4495 midline
4470 - negative vanna
4481-4466 - OB (1hr & 2hr chart)
4473 midline
4471 - 445.84 - $3.17B
4453-4438 - 444.02-442.48 - $20.06B
Dark Pool Levels
Another +$2B of dark pool came in at the 4554 level as this becomes an important level where we know they are accumulating, but which direction will it push towards?
4554 - 454.10 - $7.56B
4522-4509 - 450.89-449.62 - $14.81B
4471 - 445.84 - $3.17B
4453-4438 - 444.02-442.48 - $20.06B
4421-4393 - 440.85-438.06 - $25.11B
4384-4375 - 437.18-436.20 - $24.71B
4349-4344 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B
4325-4292 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B
We need to pay attention to these dark pool levels. Remember the levels where we see dark pool prints greater than $4B should peak our interest. I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.
Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)
These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break.
Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.
4566-4583 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)
4575 midline
4589-4597 - OB (30min chart)
4593 midline
4610-4617 - OB (30min chart)
4613 midline
4652-4665 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)
4658 midline
Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.
4529-4520 - OB (30min chart)
4525 midline
4498-4493 - OB (15min chart)
4495 midline
4481-4466 - OB (1hr & 2hr chart)
4473 midline
4408-4399 - OB (2hr chart)
4404 midline
4393-4380 - OB (1hr chart)
4386 midline
4375-4362 - OB (1hr chart)
4369 midline
4344-4328 - OB (1hr & 2hr chart)
4336 midline
4304-4297 - OB (1hr chart)
4301 midline
Weekly Option Expected Move
SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~55.03 points. SPY’s expected move is ~5.69. That puts us at 4560.44 to the upside and 4450.38 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 454.97 and 443.59.
Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.
Volland Data
For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.
Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet
Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.
Positive vanna - will act as magnet
Negative vanna - will act as repellent
When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.
Above Spot:
4570 - negative vanna
4580-4595 - negative vanna
4590 largest of cluster
4615 - negative vanna
4625 - negative vanna
Below Spot:
4555-4535 - negative vanna
4550 and 4540 largest of cluster
4515 - negative vanna
4500 - negative vanna
4470 - negative vanna
Charm
Remember if IV is not expanding charm will start to overtake Vanna especially 0DTE as it comes closer to expiration.
For all expiry’s, Charm total notional value is bullish - negative is bullish and positive bearish - take the total of the far left and far right values.
The 0DTE view on SPX Charm shows a anti-gex paradigm - this is bearish. It will seek price at a balance point which is 4560-4555. Currently, this is predicting a choppy sideways day of action.
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.