February 9, 2024 SPX, ES, SPY Trade Plan

Market Recap

Hello fellow traders. As called out in Wednesday’s chat room my expectations were that we would face selling pressure today and we exactly got that. While not major and we traded in a tight 15pt range our trade plan provided 2 trade ideas…

1. If there is a failed breakout of 5000 target 4985

2. If there is a failed breakdown of 4980-4985 target 5000

Additionally, in the morning in our chat room we provided an update that 4985 would trade and that ended up being 2pts shy of the low of the day.

All in all great analysis EOD Wednesday and then into today’s session…

In Monday’s trade plan we also shared the Gamma levels and chart from Volland and suggested there are 3 options and price will migrate to one of these options. We got a little bit of option 1 where price found support at 4920 this week before we finally completed the journey up to 5000 once we were above 4950…Will we hit 5010 or 5015 tomorrow?

Let’s find out in today’s trade plan…

Gamma levels as seen on Volland on Monday

---

2/9 News Catalysts

1. 8:30am est - CPI seasonal factor revisions

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

The most anticipated earnings release for the week of February 5, 2024 are Palantir Technologies #PLTR, PayPal #PYPL, Alibaba #BABA, Snap #SNAP, Caterpillar #CAT, Eli Lilly #LLY, Walt Disney #DIS, PepsiCo #PEP, McDonald's #MCD, and Uber Technologies #UBER.

---

My Trading Rules

---

February’s trading session seasonality…

SPX’s Seasonal Performance for February

It tracks with the larger yearly season calendar during an election year.

Election years are the second-best year of the four-year cycle, & the market has performed better with a sitting president running for reelection. There have been six election year declines greater than 5% since 1896 & the first five months of the year are stronger when the party in power retains the White House. But war can be a major factor.

---

Just a reminder for those not subscribed to our monthly or yearly paid subscription the newsletter will end here for you. You can still join us for the rest of the plan by subscribing below. 

---