February 6, 2024 SPX, ES, SPY Trade Plan

Market Recap

Hello traders and welcome to another daily trade plan. The week got off to a good start where we called for a pullback and to look for a retake of the 4930-4940 level.

From our trade plan we had the following trades that played out after the market open…

1. Below 4945 target 4935-4930

2. If VIX continues going up then a breakdown of 4930 targets 4920

We then flipped long after finding balance on the 0DTE options flow and guided in real time in our chat room the next areas of target and key levels of support/resistance.

Here is our update in our chat room guiding our room on a reversal and key pivot to long from - all in real time in our chat room

Here is our update in our chat room guiding our room on a reversal and key pivot to long from - all in real time in our chat room

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Just a reminder while we are through most of the earnings from the past quarter there are still companies reporting this week and the likes of NVDA, ADBE, and a few others reporting towards the end of February…

Our trade ideas and AMZN and ADBE are alive and well. No changes to their plans!

So what did the market do today? The big thing is it held last week’s value area high. It was January’s VAH on top of that - so if price wants to continue up we need to continue to stay above this key level. On SPX it is 4931.

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2/6 News Catalysts

1. 12:00pm est - Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester speaks

2. 1:00pm est - Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari speaks

3. 2:00pm est - Boston Fed President Susan Collins speaks

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

The most anticipated earnings release for the week of February 5, 2024 are Palantir Technologies #PLTR, PayPal #PYPL, Alibaba #BABA, Snap #SNAP, Caterpillar #CAT, Eli Lilly #LLY, Walt Disney #DIS, PepsiCo #PEP, McDonald's #MCD, and Uber Technologies #UBER.

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My Trading Rules

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Seasonality favors a small pullback this week before rising again going into OPEX next week.

SPX’s Seasonal Performance for February

It tracks with the larger yearly season calendar during an election year.

Election years are the second-best year of the four-year cycle, & the market has performed better with a sitting president running for reelection. There have been six election year declines greater than 5% since 1896 & the first five months of the year are stronger when the party in power retains the White House. But war can be a major factor.

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