February 22, 2024 SPX, ES, SPY Trade Plan

Market Recap

Hello team. What an intense ending to the market that I unfortunately missed as I was away the 2nd half of the trading day, but throughout the day we stated to play the edges of 4945 and 4980. Meaning long above 4945 when price came there and short 4980.

We had a nice tight range between 4980 and 4950 until the end of the day when they trapped bears - remember our trading rules after lunch hours breakdowns of key levels need to be proven on the 15 and/or 30 min chart. We didn’t have a single candle close below this level all day on the 15 or 30min chart.

I took puts twice on the day and with those opportunities and PnL locked I called it a day. We guided all of our traders and the new experience in the DM Discord is just amazing. Giving key levels and targets and suggesting when to take profits.

Providing key analysis of the market all in real time - this was prior to the FOMC Meeting Minutes

One thing is for sure a close above 4976 was going to be bullish and as we discussed in yesterday’s trade plan it came to fruition where we are now on a path to targeting 5040.

From the 2/20 session we rejected the POC from the 2/5 weekly profile sitting at 4994. We also sold down and closed the trading session below last week’s VAL at 4976.

This 4976 level and VAL is critical for the bulls to reclaim and push price back towards last week’s VAH sitting at 5039.

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Amazing ER results from NVDA and bravo to that team and company. They continue to be the star in the market and carried a lot of additional stocks AH such as SMCI.

There is a lot of overnight data coming from the EU in PMI numbers. Into the morning we have unemployment claims and more importantly after the market open US PMI numbers at 9:45am est. Could be a choppy opening waiting for those PMI numbers to report.

There is an obvious gap up in futures and ultimately if we want to see continuation above 5025 we need to see NVDA push price above 750.

2/22 News Catalysts

Economic calendar shows PMI numbers overnight from the EU and then after the session open from the US

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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My Trading Rules

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February’s trading session seasonality

SPX’s Seasonal Performance for February starts to show some weakness

It tracks with the larger yearly season calendar during an election year.

Election years are the second-best year of the four-year cycle, & the market has performed better with a sitting president running for reelection. There have been six election year declines greater than 5% since 1896 & the first five months of the year are stronger when the party in power retains the White House. But war can be a major factor.

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