February 12, 2024 SPX, ES, SPY Trade Plan

Market Recap

Hello fellow traders. Happy Super Bowl Sunday as well as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers. Should be a fun and interesting game. I have no skin in this game and just hoping we get a competitive and close game.

Last week’s call on buying the dip proved to play out. We provided this callout we saw in the Gamma short showcasing how important 4950 was last week and any dips below it and as long as above 4900 was the buy trigger. We got this on Monday with a low of 4918. So we got the lower range move - option 1 - held it and start to move back towards option 2 where we started to rally after breaking 4950 midweek.

Additionally, in the trade plans we also started numerous times how if we break 5000 and if it holds it will continue up and that 5025 will be the target. What did we get? Exactly this blueprint on the week…

Our analysis of the gamma dealer positioning guided us on this weeks trades

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Our blueprint for this week is this stat which is find a dip and hold it until Wednesday…

Historically, in up years, the S&P 500 has seen an average gain of +0.77% in the first three days of pre-President's Day week (Mon-Wed) with an 82% win rate (24-5).

The SPX typically is positive Monday thru Wednesday prior to Presidents Day

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2/12 News Catalysts

1. 9:20am est - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

2. 12:00pm est - FOMC Member Barkin Speaks

3. 2:00 pm est - Federal Budget Balance

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

Additional earnings reports will be coming out this week including $SHOP, $ABNB, $HOOD, $COIN, $ROKU, $UPST

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My Trading Rules

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February’s trading session seasonality…

SPX’s Seasonal Performance for February

It tracks with the larger yearly season calendar during an election year.

Election years are the second-best year of the four-year cycle, & the market has performed better with a sitting president running for reelection. There have been six election year declines greater than 5% since 1896 & the first five months of the year are stronger when the party in power retains the White House. But war can be a major factor.

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