December 8, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Market Recap

Hello fellow traders. First and foremost - ES futures contracts have rolled over. So that “rally” is not a rally you see simply a massive change between ES and SPX. What was 7pts yesterday is now the ES is approx. 50 pts higher than SPX. Alright to the market recap…

Just an amazing day for us as we witnessed some more range and a continued trend although the opening didn’t quite feel like it, but we had our conviction, the reason why, and boom we took off.

In our trade plan yesterday we stated these key points

• Above 4555 target 4565

• 4565 - This is my “pivot” for the trading session. Above it we should push and continue higher - below it we could face more chop as we make our way down.

• 4590-4600 - 4594 has a critical POC and VAH from the recent highs. We also have an area of interest at 4590 where we could find some resistance/selloff. If that holds then we target 4600.

• As a bull I want to see price above 4565 which will target 4575. Above 4575 we will then target 4590

• So our wedge finally broke above and then broke below. I am going to keep these on my chart in the event we retest it. Doesn’t mean it must or that it even will, but it will be a key indicator to see what price does if we go back up into the wedge.

We opened the session with a gap up at 4568, which was in the middle of one of our trade ideas as it then ran all the way to our target of 4575. From there we immediately sold off going as low as 4565 - once again our pivot on the day - and as soon as we tapped that and consolidated between 4565-4570 and the 10ema caught up on the 5 min chart we raced our way towards 4580 and ultimately hitting our target at 4590.

Now let’s take a minute to review the 5min chart and replay it so in the future we learn from this.

1. The session opened right in the middle of one of our trade plans - this is a no go for me - I don’t go chasing…so I did not just blindly enter and pray and hope

2. Not a single 5min candle closed above 4575 until the 10:10 candle close.

3. Our key LIS on the day was 4565 - we opened above it - and when it was tested again we held it - bullish signal and supportive

With that said when we defended 4565 I would have entered long such as on the 9:55 candle and then kept a mental stop loss at 4565 or even better 4560 to give my trade a bit of room to work itself out. Following this plan you would have never faced heat and only enjoyed great profits today.

All in all I think we had a pretty robust trade plan - our futures traders ate. Our intraday traders ate. This is what I call success!

Let’s jump into the trade plan and review our key levels.

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News Catalysts

1. 8:30am est - Non-Farm Employment Change

2. 8:30am est - Unemployment Rate

3. 8:30am est - Average Hourly Earnings m/m

4. 10:00am est - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

5. 10:00am est - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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12/8 SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

4590-4580 - this is chop zone - avoid trading in this zone unless it is a failed breakdown or breakout or a successful breakout or breakdown

With news out premarket and then half hour into the session we are going to have two pivots…

4590 - is my pivot level if I am a bull. I want price action to push and hold above so we can continue up.

4580 - is my pivot level if I am a bear. I want price action to push below this level and hold below it to continue further selling.

Thus, above 4590 we target…