December 29, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Dec 29, 2023

Market Recap

Here we are an end to another year of trading. It’s been great meeting so many of you who joined this journey with myself and Captain Wick. Want to thank the folks over at Volland and their amazing platform providing options dealer positions. It has been a game changer to my trading strategy and the confidence and conviction it has built along with the volume profile and order blocks.

Today was another chop filled day. Closing back near yesterday’s close. Not much to recap, we pushed above 4786, but throughout the day couldn’t hold that level and selling back towards it consolidating more. This level will continue to play in importance…

The range of the day stayed between these two trade ideas we shared

Below 4790 target 4780
If there is a failed breakdown of 4775-4780 target 4795-4800

Additionally, one of our swing trade ideas also triggered…

If there is a failed breakdown of 4780 target 4820
Select the 480 call with at least 1-2 weeks expiry if not 1/19 OPEX calls

Quick update on the Grinch - he didn’t come…

For those who haven’t subscribed this is a great opportunity to subscribe.

For as little as $15/month we provide daily trade plans for intraday traders and also provide great educational content.

News Catalysts

9:45am est - Chicago PMI

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

My Trading Rules

Dark Matter

April 11, 2023

Read full story

12/29 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

Above 4795 target 4805
If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 4805 targets 4820
If there is a failed breakdown of 4780-4785 target 4805

Bearish bias:

If there is a failed breakout of 4790 target 4780
Below 4770 target 4755
If VIX continues going up then a breakdown of 4750 targets 4740

As always keep an eye on Volland30 and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 50pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.03.

SPX/ES/SPY Swing Trade Idea:

At this point go long targeting 4820 into January…I hope I have beat this into your trade plan by now…
If there is a failed breakdown of 4780 target 4820
1. Select the 480 call with at least 1-2 weeks expiry if not 1/19 OPEX calls

Trade idea 2 triggered today when we had a failed breakdown of this level

Available for iOS and Android

12/29 SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

Tomorrow could get interesting…options expiring end of month and end of year as well. All we can ask for is a bit of range?

4783-4793 - this is the key critical zone for the bulls. The largest area of resistance and where the bulls have continued to push against, but keep coming short. With some volume they can make a break of it…without volume we get more of what we got today.

If we can clear that zone we target 4805…If we get volume on the day we could then see a break of 4805 target 4820 and nets you the all-time high. If we go further up we target 4830.

On the bearish side I would wait to see if we get a day like today to play failed breakouts…The real selling doesn’t start until we break below 4770 and then 4750. Otherwise be wary of reversals, but on a day like tomorrow doesn’t hurt to hedge any swing calls…

SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels Overview

4780-4793 - Similar theory as yesterday we need to push out of this zone and hold it to continue pushing our way to our target for our swing trade idea and the all time high target.

4805 - You get above 4795 and this level comes, but the eye on the price continues above this level to target all time highs…To play it safe you could go long once we clear 4808, but have your orders ready as it could rip fast once through there…

4820 - this is what the bulls are after - they would want more but this is the goal…reach all time highs just like NQ/QQQ have. Exact all time highs are 4818.

4780-4770- if this zone breaks it will bring a quick sell down to 4755. So for any short ideas keep this level on alert.

Volume Profile & Trends

From a quarterly volume profile on the weekly chart some key levels are seen.

4792 - Q4 VAH - still forming
4687 - 2021 POC
4684 - Q4 2021 POC
4556 - Q4 POC - still forming

SPX Weekly Chart with Quarterly Volume Profile Levels

If we take a look at the daily chart and review the monthly volume profile we find the following levels…

4818 - January ‘22 VAH
4792 - December's VAH - still forming
4717 - December's POC - still forming
4607 - December’s VAL - still forming

SPX Daily Chart with Monthly Volume Profile Levels

Let’s now look at the 4hr chart and review what the weekly volume profile levels show.

4818 - All Time Highs
4793 - Weekly High
4783 - 12/26 Weekly VAH
4767 - 12/26 Weekly VAL
4758 - Weekly Low
4740 - 12/18 Weekly POC
4722 - 12/18 Weekly VAL
4697 - Previous Week Low

SPX 4hr Chart with Weekly Volume Profile Levels

On the smaller timeframe and intraday let’s go to our 30min chart where we will put our session volume profile on. Our levels of importance are…

4793 - Previous Session High of Day
4789 - 12/28 VAH
4783 - 12/28 VAL
4780 - Previous Session Low of Day
4774 - 12/27 VAL
4767 - 12/26 VAL
4752 - 12/22 VAL
4728 - 12/21 VAL

SPX 30min Chart with Session Volume Profile Levels

Available for iOS and Android

Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.
Positive vanna - will act as magnet
Negative vanna - will act as repellent
When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

4805 - negative vanna
4820 - negative vanna
4830 - negative vanna
4870 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

4780-4770 - negative vanna
4755-4750 - negative vanna
4740-4735 - negative vanna
4725 - negative vanna

Orderblocks (OB)

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

4774-4808 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)
1. 4791 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

4777-4770 - OB (1hr chart)
1. 4774 midline
4766-4736 - OB (4hr chart)
1. 4751 midline
  1. 4758-4749 - OB (2hr chart)
    1. 4754 midline
4735-4708 - OB (2hr chart)
1. 4722 midline
4718-4712 - OB (15min chart)
1. 4715 midline

Orderblocks via Smart Money Concepts - blue are bearish supply blocks where as green are bullish demand blocks

Overlay of Key Levels

Above Spot:

4783-4793
1. 4789 - 12/28 VAH
2. 4792 - Q4 VAH - still forming
3. 4792 - December's VAH - still forming
4. 4793 - Previous Session High of Day
5. 4793 - Weekly High
4805 - negative vanna
4820 - negative vanna
1. 4818 - All Time Highs
2. 4818 - January ‘22 VAH
4830 - negative vanna
4870 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

4780-4770 - negative vanna
1. 4780 - Previous Session Low of Day
2. 4774 - 12/27 VAL
3. 4767 - 12/26 VAL
4. 4767 - 12/26 Weekly VAL
5. 4777-4770 - OB (1hr chart)
  1. 4774 midline
4755-4750 - negative vanna
1. 4758 - Weekly Low
2. 4752 - 12/22 VAL
3. 4758-4749 - OB (2hr chart)
  1. 4754 midline
4740-4735 - negative vanna
1. 4740 - 12/18 Weekly POC
2. 4766-4736 - OB (4hr chart)
  1. 4751 midline
4725 - negative vanna
1. 4728 - 12/21 VAL
2. 4722 - 12/18 Weekly VAL
3. 4735-4708 - OB (2hr chart)
  1. 4722 midline

Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~57.62 points. SPY’s expected move is ~5.92. That puts us at 4812.26 to the upside and 4697.02 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 479.54 and 467.70.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

Give a gift subscription

Dark Matter Trade

My Intraday Trading Rules

I do not trade within the first half hour UNLESS I am in a trade from the prior session and looking to close the trade or we have a major gap or a key level already broken I let the initial balance do its thing - I am just a small fish in a large ocean of traders so let's let them fight it out…

2 years ago · Dark Matter

To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.