December 22, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Dec 22, 2023

Market Recap

Alright…let’s jump right into the trade plan. Interesting whipsaw action with no real win by bulls or bears IMO. Sure the bulls took back half of yesterdays loss, but the bears kept making progress on taking down the 4700 level.

Officially, the Santa Rally starts. We still have our hopes for the Grinch to arrive first though…

Will the Grinch make an appearance this year? If so, the stock market sees on avg a return of 19% the following year…

Currently, the Grinch is on our doorsteps. The Grinch period starts 3 days prior and 3 days after Christmas. It officially started yesterday and thus far the market is down -0.88%. Keep an eye on this one for potential swing trade ideas which would suggest that we find an “interim” bottom. This Grinch theory also brings a bullish January where 16 times it has been up and 3 times down - moving an avg of 4.3%.

Where is that interim bottom? I sure hope we haven’t seen it already, but I would love to see 4650 trade and we find support near it and find some time to base around it before we take off with a Santa Rally. I would suggest trading the 475 or 480 calls for February or March OPEX (3rd Friday of the month). The other area in the event we break below 4650 would then be 4625-4600.

Tomorrow’s big news catalyst is the PCE. Expect this to set the trend for the day. It is a core and leading indicator the FED uses in its watch of inflation. In summary, expect volatility. Predictions on PCE and such I will leave those to the “experts”…

PCE expectations from the major financial powers

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News Catalysts

8:30am est - PCE
8:30am est - Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30am est - Personal Income m/m
8:30am est - Personal Spending m/m
10:00am est - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment
10:00am est - New Home Sales

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

My Trading Rules

Dark Matter

April 11, 2023

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12/22 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

Above 4748 target 4755
If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 4755 targets 4765-4770
A breakout of 4770 will target 4785
1. There will be some resistance around 4778 where we have the weekly high, but also value area highs - keep an eye for consolidation here and bring your stop losses in. This could trade back towards 4770 once 4778 is hit before taking back off towards 4785
Should we get more bullish above 4785 will target 4810 then 4820
1. Check in for updated options flow data in Volland for this trade idea

Bearish bias:

Below 4735 target 4720
If VIX continues going up then a breakdown of 4720 targets 4710-4705
A breakdown of 4705 will target 4690
1. Check in for updated options flow data in Volland for this trade idea
2. There will be support and could turn into consolidation at 4697 before it continues to 4690
Continued selling below 4690 will target 4670 then 4660 then 4650
1. Check in for updated options flow data in Volland for this trade idea

As always keep an eye on Volland30 and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 50pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.01.

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SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Volume Profile & Trends

Let’s review our volume profiles…

From a quarterly volume profile on the weekly chart some key levels are seen.

4778 - Q4 VAH - still forming
4698 - Q4 2021 POC
4687 - 2021 POC
4552 - Q4 POC - still forming
4532 - 2023 VAH

SPX Weekly Chart with Quarterly Volume Profile Levels

If we take a look at the daily chart and review the monthly volume profile we find the following levels…

4818 - January ‘22 VAH
4786 - January ‘22 POC - hasn’t been breached
4778 - December's VAH - still forming
4718 - December's POC - still forming
4595 - December’s VAL - still forming

SPX Daily Chart with Monthly Volume Profile Levels

Let’s now look at the 4hr chart and review what the weekly volume profile levels show.

4778 - Weekly High
4760 - 12/18 Weekly VAH (still forming)
4740 - 12/18 Weekly POC - still forming
4710 - 12/18 Weekly VAL - still forming
4697 - Weekly Low
4647 - 12/11 Weekly VAL

SPX 4hr Chart with Weekly Volume Profile Levels

On the smaller timeframe and intraday let’s go to our 30min chart where we will put our session volume profile on. Our levels of importance are…

4770 - 12/20 VAH
4748 - 12/21 VAH & 2D Inside Bar High
4728 - 12/21 VAL
4708 - 2D Inside Bar Low
4698 - 12/20 VAL
4651 - 12/13 VAL
4628 - 12/12 VAL
4607 - 12/11 VAL

SPX 30min Chart with Session Volume Profile Levels

Available for iOS and Android

Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.
Positive vanna - will act as magnet
Negative vanna - will act as repellent
When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

4755 - negative vanna
4765-4770 - negative vanna
4785-4795 - negative vanna
4810 - negative vanna
4820 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

4735-4705 - negative vanna
1. 4720 - negative vanna
2. 4710-4705 - negative vanna
4690 - negative vanna
4670 - negative vanna
4660 - negative vanna
4650 - negative vanna
4635-4630 - negative vanna

Orderblocks (OB)

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

4770-4778 - OB (30min, 1hr chart)
1. 4774 midline
4778-4797 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)
1. 4788 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

4718-4712 - OB (15min chart)
1. 4715 midline
4652-4643 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)
1. 4648 midline
4590-4546 - OB (1D chart)
1. 4568 midline
4568-4546 - OB (4hr chart)
1. 4556 midline

Orderblocks via Smart Money Concepts - blue are bearish supply blocks where as green are bullish demand blocks

Key Levels

Above Spot:

4748 - 12/21 VAH & 2D Inside Bar High
4755 - negative vanna
1. 4760 - 12/18 Weekly VAH (still forming)
4765-4770 - negative vanna
1. 4770 - 12/20 VAH
2. 4770-4778 - OB (30min, 1hr chart)
  1. 4774 midline
4778 - Weekly High
1. 4778 - December's VAH - still forming
2. 4778 - Q4 VAH - still forming
4785-4795 - negative vanna
1. 4786 - January ‘22 POC - hasn’t been breached
2. 4778-4797 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)
  1. 4788 midline
4810 - negative vanna
4820 - negative vanna
1. 4818 - January ‘22 VAH

Below Spot:

4740 - 12/18 Weekly POC - still forming
4735 - negative vanna
1. 4728 - 12/21 VAL
4720 - negative vanna
1. 4718 - December's POC - still forming
2. 4718-4712 - OB (15min chart)
  1. 4715 midline
4710-4705 - negative vanna
1. 4710 - 12/18 Weekly VAL - still forming
2. 4708 - 2D Inside Bar Low
4697 - Weekly Low
1. 4698 - 12/20 VAL
2. 4698 - Q4 2021 POC
4690 - negative vanna
1. 4687 - 2021 POC
4670 - negative vanna
4660 - negative vanna
4650 - negative vanna
1. 4652-4643 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)
  1. 4648 midline
2. 4651 - 12/13 VAL
3. 4647 - 12/11 Weekly VAL
4635-4630 - negative vanna
1. 4628 - 12/12 VAL
2. 4607 - 12/11 VAL

Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~54.53 points. SPY’s expected move is ~5.61. That puts us at 4773.71 to the upside and 4664.65 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 474.98 and 463.76.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

TradingView Chart Access

For access to my chart laying out all of the above key levels please visit here.

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Dark Matter Trade

My Intraday Trading Rules

I do not trade within the first half hour UNLESS I am in a trade from the prior session and looking to close the trade or we have a major gap or a key level already broken I let the initial balance do its thing - I am just a small fish in a large ocean of traders so let's let them fight it out…

2 years ago · Dark Matter

To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.