August 28, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

Nice push here in the pre-market for the bulls.

Bulls will want to keep price above above 4425 to begin targeting 4445-4450.

Bears want to start capping this run at 4425 or 4450. If they can do so they will push price towards 4390 and then 4375.

---

ADBE

What an amazing sell campaign by the bears. Did not see that one happening although we did say watch for the failed breakout of 540. This plan ended with a clean simple move where 532.5 went fast and looking at the data we would have seen if 530 was lost we would target 517.5 then 515. Congrats if you took this one and even more held till the lows.

510 is the key level for the bulls. Below it and target 505, but watch that 508 level if it reverses. Below 505 could go to 500 with a speed bump at 502.50. Below 500 targets 495. Above 512.50 will chase 522.50.

1. Above 527.5 target 537.5 then 540

2. If there is a failed breakout of 530/527.5 then target 525 then 517.5

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland for $ADBE

$ADBE chart - overview of key orderblocks

For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

No catalyst for Monday, August 28. On the week though we do have JOLTS Job Openings and Consumer Confidence ratings on Tuesday. The remainder of the week continues with data on jobs including ADP numbers on Wednesday and Friday. We then have PCE on Thursday and PMI on Friday.

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

---

---

8/28 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4415 target 4425

2. If VIX continues going down then a breakout of 4425 targets 4445-4450

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4390 target 4375

2. If there is a failed breakout of 4425 or 4450 target 4390

3. If there is a breakdown of 4375 target 4360

As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 10pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.03.

---

---

SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4415 - negative vanna

   1. 4393-4410 - 438.06-439.96 - $32.62B

2. 4425 - negative vanna

3. 4445-4450 - negative vanna

   1. 4440-4456 - OB (30min chart)

      1. 4448 midline

   2. 4438-4453 - 442.52-443.18 - $14.32B

4. 4475-4480 - negative vanna

   1. 4473-4490 - OB (4hr chart)

      1. 4482 midline

   2. 4453-4470 - 444.02-446.66 - $9.63B

Below Spot:

1. 4390 - negative vanna

   1. 4384-4375 - 437.18-436.20 - $29.28B

2. 4375 - positive Gamma

3. 4360 - negative vanna

   1. 4362-4328 - OB (1D chart)

      1. 4345 midline

4. 4350 - negative vanna

   1. 4345-4328 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

      1. 4336 midline

   2. 4349-4344 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B

5. 4325 - negative vanna

6. 4305 - negative vanna

   1. 4304-4297 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4301 midline

   2. 4325-4292 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B

---

Dark Pool Levels

Nothing major in terms of single prints, but we did see $1.73B at 4438 and $1.15B at 4382.

Above Spot:

1. 4393-4410 - 438.06-439.96 - $32.62B

2. 4438-4453 - 442.52-443.18 - $14.32B

3. 4453-4470 - 444.02-446.66 - $9.63B

4. 4503-4522 - 449.03-450.89 - $22.66B

5. 4534-4538 - 452.14-452.49 - $13.81B

6. 4554-4567 - 454.10-455.41 - $14.37B

7. 4577-4590 - 456.43-457.64 - $10.94B

Below Spot:

1. 4384-4375 - 437.18-436.20 - $29.28B

2. 4349-4344 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B

3. 4325-4292 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B

4. 4214-4188 - 420.16-417.60 - $18.8B

I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

---

Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break. I use Sonarlab’s indicator on Tradingview to plot these.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4440-4456 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4448 midline

2. 4473-4490 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4482 midline

3. 4490-4527 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4508 midline

4. 4523-4536 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4530 midline

5. 4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4577 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4362-4328 - OB (1D chart)

   1. 4345 midline

2. 4345-4328 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4336 midline

3. 4304-4297 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4301 midline

4. 4276-4263 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4270 midline

5. 4195-4166 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4181 midline

Green Outlines: OB’s or Demand; Blue Outline: OB’s or Supply

---

Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~66.88 points. SPY’s expected move is ~6.76. That puts us at 4472.60 to the upside and 4388.84 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 446.73 and 433.21.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

---

---

Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

---

Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4410-4435 - negative vanna

   1. 4415

   2. 4425

2. 4445 - negative vanna

3. 4450 - negative vanna

4. 4465-4485 - negative vanna

   1. 4475

   2. 4480

Below Spot:

1. 4390 - negative vanna

2. 4360 - negative vanna

3. 4350 - negative vanna

4. 4325 - negative vanna

5. 4305 - negative vanna

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland

---

Gamma

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support

Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…

Above Spot:

1. 4440 - positive Gamma

2. 4455-4460 - positive Gamma

3. 4500 - positive Gamma

Below Spot:

1. 4390 - positive Gamma

2. 4375 - positive Gamma

3. 4360 - positive Gamma

4. 4325 - positive Gamma

Aggregate view of Gamma via Volland

---

---

My Intraday Trading Rules

---

To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

---