August 25, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Last Trading Session Recap

Just amazing levels in our trade plan for yesterday’s trading session. We called a high of 4455 - got 4458 - and called a low at 4390 until the last half hour of the trading session where we had a breakdown of that level and price chased the lows of 4375.

In our trade plan we stated the following…

Major gap up and currently price is having a hard time maintaining 4455 - this is a key level on the day.

If you want continued trend up as a bull you want to break 4455 hold it to target 4480.

For the bears they need to start chipping away - ideally you wait to see a reaction at 4440 to target 4420. You can take a more risky trade on a failed breakout of 4455 to target 4440 then. Below 4420 target 4390.

The first 30 mins we saw price open at 4455 hit 4440 then bounce back to 4458 and then an immediate crash from there until we found basing at 4400 before finally finding 4390 and then the lows of the day at 4375.

While I traded puts, work called, I closed my trades around 4430. I left a lot on the table today if only I could have held, but when work calls I don’t prefer to have active trades unless they are swing trades. Would I have held? Look at the 15 or 30min chart plus the VOLD indicator and you can clearly see what a trend day looks like. Not a single green candle until we started to base at 4400.

All in all a great day as long as you played the levels including the 4440 hold back to 4458 or you took the failed breakout of 4455.

With that said let’s jump into the trade plan.

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SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

Lots of FOMC Members speaking tomorrow including Daddy JPowell…Expect volatility, reversals, traps, etc. This is one session I would recommend trading lighter than you normally would.

Bulls want to start pushing price above 4385 and holding it to target 4400. Above it 4415 then 4425. If we really get VIX to contract then 4445-4450 could come.

For the bears they want price below 4370 target 4360. Below 4360 target 4345 then 4320. If we really get going then 4305 comes and then 4290.

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ADBE

What an amazing sell campaign by the bears. Did not see that one happening although we did say watch for the failed breakout of 540. This plan ended with a clean simple move where 532.5 went fast and looking at the data we would have seen if 530 was lost we would target 517.5 then 515. Congrats if you took this one and even more held till the lows.

510 is the key level for the bulls. Below it and target 505, but watch that 508 level if it reverses. Below 505 could go to 500 with a speed bump at 502.50. Below 500 targets 495. Above 512.50 will chase 522.50.

1. Below 510 target 505 then 502.50/500

2. Below 500 target 495

3. Above 512.50 target 522.50

$ADBE chart - overview of key orderblocks

For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

1. 9:00am est - FOMC Member Harker Speaks - on Bloomberg TV

2. 9:40am est - FOMC Member Harker Speaks - on Yahoo Finance Live

3. 10:00am est - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment & Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

4. 10:05am est - Fed Chair Powell gives opening speech at Jackson Hole summit

5. Rest of the day - Jackson Hole Symposium

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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8/25 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4385 target 4400

2. If there is a breakout of 4400 target 4415

3. If there is a breakout of 4415 target 4425

4. If VIX is going down then a breakout of 4425 targets 4445-4450

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4370 target 4360

2. If there is a failed breakout of 4385 or 4400 target 4370

3. If there is a breakdown of 4360 target 4345 then 4320

4. If there is a breakdown of 4320 target 4305 then 4290

As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 10pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.03.

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SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4380-4385 - negative vanna

   1. 4393-4410 - 438.06-439.72 - $30.72B

2. 4400 - negative vanna

3. 4415 - negative vanna

4. 4425 - negative vanna

5. 4445-4450 - negative vanna

   1. 4440-4456 - OB (30min chart)

      1. 4448 midline

6. 4438-4453 - 442.52-444.02 - $20.52B

7. 4473-4490 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4482 midline

   2. 4467-4470 - 445.67-446.66 - $14.4B

8. 4490-4527 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4508 midline

   2. 4503-4522 - 449.03-450.89 - $24.68B

Below Spot:

1. 4370 - negative vanna

   1. 4371-4360 - OB (30min chart)

      1. 4365 midline

   2. 4384-4375 - 437.18-436.30 - $30.08B

2. 4360 - negative vanna

3. 4345 - negative vanna

   1. 4345-4328 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

      1. 4336 midline

   2. 4349-4344 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B

4. 4320 - negative vanna

5. 4305 - negative vanna

   1. 4304-4297 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4301 midline

   2. 4325-4292 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B

6. 4290 - negative vanna

7. 4280 - negative vanna

8. 4270 - negative vanna

   1. 4276-4263 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

      1. 4270 midline

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Dark Pool Levels

Nothing major in terms of single prints, but we did see $1.73B at 4438 and $1.15B at 4382.

Above Spot:

1. 4393-4410 - 438.06-439.72 - $30.72B

2. 4438-4453 - 442.52-444.02 - $20.52B

3. 4467-4470 - 445.67-446.66 - $14.4B

4. 4503-4522 - 449.03-450.89 - $24.68B

5. 4534-4538 - 452.14-452.49 - $15.28B

6. 4554-4567 - 454.08-455.41 - $19B

7. 4577-4590 - 456.43-457.64 - $12.26B

Below Spot:

1. 4384-4375 - 437.18-436.30 - $30.08B

2. 4349-4344 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B

3. 4325-4292 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B

4. 4214-4188 - 420.16-417.60 - $18.8B

I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

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Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break. I use Sonarlab’s indicator on Tradingview to plot these.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4440-4456 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4448 midline

2. 4473-4490 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4482 midline

3. 4490-4527 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4508 midline

4. 4523-4536 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4530 midline

5. 4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4577 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4371-4360 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4365 midline

2. 4345-4328 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4336 midline

3. 4304-4297 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4301 midline

4. 4276-4263 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4270 midline

5. 4195-4166 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4181 midline

Green Outlines: OB’s or Demand; Blue Outline: OB’s or Supply

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Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~79.67 points. SPY’s expected move is ~8.00. That puts us at 4449.39 to the upside and 4290.05 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 444.50 and 428.50.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

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Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

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Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4380-4385 - negative vanna

2. 4395-4435 - negative vanna

   1. 4415

   2. 4425

3. 4445-4450 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4370 - negative vanna

2. 4360 - negative vanna

3. 4345 - negative vanna

4. 4320 - negative vanna

5. 4305 - negative vanna

6. 4290 - negative vanna

7. 4280 - negative vanna

8. 4270 - negative vanna

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland

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Gamma

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support

Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…

Above Spot:

1. 4390 - positive Gamma

2. 4440 - positive Gamma

3. 4500 - positive Gamma

Below Spot:

1. 4375-4370 - positive Gamma

2. 4360 - positive Gamma

3. 4345 - positive Gamma

4. 4320-4315 - positive Gamma

5. 4305 - positive Gamma

6. 4295-4290 - positive Gamma

7. 4280 - positive Gamma

Aggregate view of Gamma via Volland

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My Intraday Trading Rules

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To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

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