August 24, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Last Trading Session Recap

Hello team - bit of a personal conflict last evening so I don’t have a full recap of yesterday’s trading session, but review it again. We held a key bullish level of 4395 and took off from there hitting our target of 4425.

NVDA with a massive ER beat will be a ticker I watch - not to trade, but to see its reaction.

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SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

Major gap up and currently price is having a hard time maintining 4455 - this is a key level on the day.

If you want continued trend up as a bull you want to break 4455 hold it to target 4480.

For the bears they need to start chipping away - ideally you wait to see a reaction at 4440 to target 4420. You can take a more risky trade on a failed breakout of 4455 to target 4440 then. Below 4420 target 4390.

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ADBE

540 is a massive level - if it breaks it starts to target 555 then. If we don’t hold 540/537.5 we begin the trek back down to 532.5. I would wait to trade a failed breakdown or breakout of the below levels.

1. 540 - watch failed breakout

2. 537.5 - watch to see if it holds this level

3. Below 537.5 target 532.4

4. Above 540 target 548 then 550

$ADBE chart - overview of key orderblocks

For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

1. 8:30am est - Unemployment Claims

2. 8:30am est - Core Durable Goods Orders

3. 12:00pm est - FOMC Member Harker Speaks

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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8/24 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4455 target 4470-4480

2. If there is a breakout of 4480 target 4495

3. If there is a failed breakdown of 4440 target 4455

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4440 target 4420

2. If there is a failed breakout of 4455 target 4440

3. If there is a breakdown of 4420 target 4390

As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 11pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.03.

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SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4480 - negative vanna

   1. 4473-4490 - OB (4hr chart)

      1. 4482 midline

   2. 4467-4470 - 445.67-446.66 - $14.4B

2. 4495 - negative vanna

   1. 4490-4527 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4508 midline

   2. 4503-4522 - 449.03-450.89 - $24.68B

3. 4505 - negative vanna

4. 4515-4525 - negative vanna

   1. 4523-4536 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4530 midline

   2. 4534-4538 - 452.14-452.49 - $15.28B

Below Spot:

1. 4455 - negative vanna

2. 4440 - negative vanna

3. 4420 - negative vanna

4. 4390 - negative vanna

   1. 4391-4382 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4387 midline

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Dark Pool Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4467-4470 - 445.67-446.66 - $14.4B

2. 4503-4522 - 449.03-450.89 - $24.68B

3. 4534-4538 - 452.14-452.49 - $15.28B

4. 4554-4567 - 454.08-455.41 - $19B

5. 4577-4590 - 456.43-457.64 - $12.26B

Below Spot:

1. 4453-4438 - 444.02-442.52 - $18.79B

2. 4410-4393 - 439.72-438.06 - $30.72B

3. 4384-4375 - 437.18-436.30 - $28.93B

4. 4349-4344 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B

5. 4325-4292 - 431.26-427.92 - $18.46B

6. 4214-4188 - 420.16-417.60 - $18.8B

I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

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Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break. I use Sonarlab’s indicator on Tradingview to plot these.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4473-4490 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4482 midline

2. 4490-4527 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4508 midline

3. 4523-4536 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4530 midline

4. 4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4577 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4391-4382 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4387 midline

2. 4371-4360 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4365 midline

3. 4345-4328 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4336 midline

4. 4304-4297 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4301 midline

5. 4276-4263 - OB (1hr, 2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4270 midline

6. 4195-4166 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4181 midline

Green Outlines: OB’s or Demand; Blue Outline: OB’s or Supply

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Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~79.67 points. SPY’s expected move is ~8.00. That puts us at 4449.39 to the upside and 4290.05 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 444.50 and 428.50.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

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Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

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Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4455 - negative vanna

2. 4480 - negative vanna

3. 4495 - negative vanna

4. 4505 - negative vanna

5. 4515-4525 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4440 - negative vanna

2. 4420 - negative vanna

3. 4390 - negative vanna

4. 4325 - negative vanna

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland

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Gamma

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support

Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…

Above Spot:

1. 4455-4475 - positive Gamma

2. 4485-4490 - positive Gamma

3. 4500 - positive Gamma

Below Spot:

1. 4435 - positive Gamma

2. 4390 - positive Gamma

Aggregate view of Gamma via Volland

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My Intraday Trading Rules

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To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

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