August 15, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Last Trading Session Recap

Quite a day to be a bull. If you take a look at the stock market heatmap you will clearly see tech all around green while defense sectors down.

8/14 Stock Market Heatmap - Tech all around green

What’s interesting is before we go into a key news day and earnings from HD in pre-market we had weakness in the retail trade sector although AMZN carried the sector. HD and WMT faced some selloff.

What incredible action in NVDA as well. Congrats to all the NVDA bulls and that squeeze rallying NVDA to over 7% on the day.

To the recap, SPX opened right in the middle of our bearish bias idea where we had a trade idea that below 4465 target 4440. I don’t typically trade futures and so this is not a trade I would have jumped in as we were in the middle of the move. Instead what you want to do is wait and let the market digest any news - NVDA received a lot of bullish news in the morning, which is why it pushed up. Besides that, the market needs to find a balance that makes some side more happy than the other and that’s what we got today.

To further guide you on whether or not this trend would continue all you needed to do was look at ES’ chart and you would have seen that it put in lower highs and higher highs. Don’t fight your bias, just follow price and momentum.

We are at a key SPX level in overnight futures near that 4500 level. If bears want any shot of pushing this down it happens here otherwise break this area and we go back towards 4550 and then 4600.

With that let’s jump into the trade plan.

---

SPX/SPY/ES Intraday Overview (TL;DR)

Bulls want to keep price above 4485. As along as they do target 4505 then 4515. If we breakout of 4515 target 4525. If VIX continues to sell above 4530 targets 4545.

Bears want price below 4485, but they must defend 4500 as well. Below 4485 targets 4470. If there is a breakdown of 4465 target 4440.

---

ADBE

This ticker was extremely wrong and it blew my trade plan and instead we had strong pushes through two key levels at 510 and 515. That’s one train you don’t want to get in front of.

Ultimately 525 continues the bullish push up targeting 530 and then 535. Fireworks begin above 535.

For the bears they want to push below 522.50 targeting 517.5 and then 515.

1. Above 525 target 530 then 535

2. Below 525 target 517.5 then 515

$ADBE Vanna view via Volland

$ADBE chart - overview of key orderblocks

---

NFLX

It held 420 putting in a failed breakdown of this level and targeting 427.5. As long as price stays above 420 we target 435.

1. Below 428 target 420 - I want to see a failed breakout of 428

2. Above 428 target 435

$NFLX Vanna view via Volland

$NFLX chart - overview of key orderblocks

For intraday updates please follow me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

1. 8:30am est - Core Retail Sales

2. 8:30am est - Empire State Manufacturing Index

3. 11:00am est - FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks

The most anticipated earnings releases scheduled for the week are Home Depot #HD, Target #TGT, Palo Alto Networks #PANW, which reports after the close on Friday, Walmart #WMT, Sea Limited #SE, Applied Materials #AMAT, Cisco #CSCO, GreenPower Motor #GP, ZIM Integrated Shipping #ZIM, and Nu Holdings #NU.

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

---

---

8/15 - SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4505 target 4515

2. If there is a breakout of 4515 target 4525

3. If VIX continues to sell above 4530 targets 4545

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4485 target 4470

2. If there is a breakdown of 4465 target 4440

As always keep an eye on Volland30, VOLD indicator, and the VIX for trend continuation or reversals.

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 17pts more than the SPX levels shared. To get SPY levels simply take the SPX levels and divide by 10.03.

---

---

SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Above Spot:

1. 4505 - negative vanna

   1. 4477-4503 - OB (4hr chart)

      1. 4490 midline

   2. 4503-4522 - 450.89-449.03 - $24.68B

   3. 4500 - negative DAG - major

2. 4515 - negative vanna

3. 4525 - negative vanna

   1. 4523-4536 - OB (1hr chart)

      1. 4529 midline

   2. 4534-4538 - 452.49-452.14 - $15.28B

4. 4535-4555 - negative vanna

   1. 4554-4567 - 455.41-454.08 - $19B

5. 4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4577 midline

   2. 4577-4590 - 457.64-456.43 - $12.26B

Below Spot:

1. 4485 - negative vanna

   1. 4485 - positive DAG

2. 4480-4445 - negative DAG

   1. 4470 major

   2. 4478-4473 - OB (15min chart)

      1. 4475 midline

   3. 4470-4467 - 446.65-445.67 - $16.88B

3. 4440 - negative vanna

   1. 4440 - positive DAG

   2. 4453-4444 - 444.02-443.15 - $8.93B

4. 4390 - negative vanna

   1. 4411-4385 - OB (4hr chart)

      1. 4398 midline

   2. 4410-4393 - 439.74-438.06 - $22.02B

---

Dark Pool Levels

No major prints today…

Above Spot:

1. 4503-4522 - 450.89-449.03 - $24.68B

2. 4534-4538 - 452.49-452.14 - $15.28B

3. 4554-4567 - 455.41-454.08 - $19B

4. 4577-4590 - 457.64-456.43 - $12.26B

Below Spot:

1. 4470-4467 - 446.65-445.67 - $16.88B

2. 4453-4444 - 444.02-443.15 - $8.93B

3. 4438 - 442.52 - $5.31B

4. 4410-4393 - 439.74-438.06 - $22.02B

5. 4384-4375 - 437.18-436.20 - $22.33B

6. 4349-4344 - 433.65-433.19 - $12.14B

I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

---

Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break. I use Sonarlab’s indicator on Tradingview to plot these.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4477-4503 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4490 midline

2. 4490-4527 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4509 midline

3. 4523-4536 - OB (1hr chart)

   1. 4529 midline

4. 4534-4540 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4537 midline

5. 4572-4582 - OB (2hr, 4hr chart)

   1. 4577 midline

6. 4638-4660 - FVG (4hr chart)

7. 4652-4665 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)

   1. 4658 midline

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4478-4473 - OB (15min chart)

   1. 4475 midline

2. 4425-4416 - OB (30min, 1hr chart)

   1. 4421 midline

3. 4411-4385 - OB (4hr chart)

   1. 4398 midline

4. 4393-4380 - OB (1hr, 2hr chart)

   1. 4387 midline

5. 4344-4328 - OB (2hr chart)

   1. 4336 midline

Green Fill: Bullish FVG’ or Demand - Green Outlines: OB’s or Demand; Blue Fill: Bearish FVG or Supply - Blue Outline: OB’s or Supply

---

Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~65.79 points. SPY’s expected move is ~6.67. That puts us at 4529.85 to the upside and 4398.27 to the downside. For SPY these levels are 452.32 and 438.98.

Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

---

---

Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

---

Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4495 - negative vanna

2. 4505 - negative vanna

3. 4515 - negative vanna

4. 4525 - negative vanna

5. 4535-4555 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4485 - negative vanna

2. 4440 - negative vanna

3. 4390 - negative vanna

4. 4375 - negative vanna

Aggregate view of Vanna via Volland

---

Delta-Adjusted Gamma (DAG)

DAG represents where dealers may assist a move in the markets. Positive DAG and dealers are buying. Negative DAG and dealers are selling. The larger the value the more dealers are buying or selling.

Above Spot:

1. 4490 - negative DAG

2. 4495 - positive DAG

3. 4500 - negative DAG - major

Below Spot:

1. 4485 - positive DAG

2. 4480-4445 - negative DAG

   1. 4470 major

3. 4440 - positive DAG

Aggregate view of DAG via Volland

---

---

My Intraday Trading Rules

---

To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

---