April 14, 2023 SPX, SPY, ES Trade Plan

Retail Sales, Consumer Sentiment, and FED Speak will highlight some of the key events happening today

Good evening/day/morning traders. Here we are another week of trading and another successful week for the group. Thanks for the tweets for those of you the past few days who have engaged with Captain and myself, taken the trade plans, and hit some amazing trades yielding you some amazing profits.

I want to direct you to one Tweet in regards to what does my chart setup look like and with all of the various levels how do I manage it. One of the first things I will tell you is I use TradingView and one of their features I love is “grouping” objects on the chart. This easily allows me to turn groups on/off so to not clutter my chart.

At a high level, the section on key levels below in the trade plan is what I am most focused on. It is where I have taken key data points overlayed them to provide me with the key levels and WHY they are key. Do we have positive gamma? Negative vanna? Dark pool? Adding all of these up will help you with your conviction of why you are in the trade, what your plan and target is in the trade, and where you need to manage risk in the event we are wrong. My goal is not to predict what the market will do or if price will go up or down. All I can do is paytiently wait for the levels to play out and react to them.

Additionally, if you haven’t noticed some of the areas that have key gamma or vanna levels will overlay with your OB’s and FVG’s and even dark pool levels. For instance today 4100 gamma was a key level we held that started the rally at the open. On the 30min chart it was also where we had an FVG. Put the two together and you may have created your own trade idea or reason to long the market at the open.

Last session trading recap

Today I took only one trade that yielded us 15pts hitting our target, but if you left runners you were able to capture 25pts!

If there is a breakout of 4120 target 4135

We entered this trade around 11:40am est. Had a bit of a drawdown, and then started a slow climb up where we hit our target at roughly 1:40pm est and continued from there hitting a high of 4150.26. One thing to notice if you look at the dag chart dealers had to sell if price got above 4150 which it hit, but came back under. So dealers don’t need to sell or buy to hedge. Tomorrow brings us no dealer buys or sells so price action will be dictated by customers and dealers will act accordingly.

Let’s get into the trade plan and review our plan and key levels…

I enjoy interacting and learning from other traders so continue to share your trades, ideas, and how you use this trade plan by messaging me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

1. 8:30am est - PPI - Retail Sales

2. 8:45am est - FOMC Member Waller Speaks

3. 10:00am est - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

4. 10:00am est - Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations

5. Let’s also not forget about bank earnings premarket

For more information on news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES or SPY. ES value is approx. 27-30pts more than the SPX levels shared below.

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4150 target 4190

2. If there is a failed breakdown of 4125 target 4140

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4145 target 4130-25

2. If there is a breakdown of 4115 target 4100

   1. This could be a trap so manage risk on a potential reversal

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SPX - The Why Behind the Plan

Key Levels

Below Spot - support:

1. 4146 - (413.39) - $2.5B has printed at this level

2. 4135-4125 - positive gamma

   1. 4143-4132 - FVG (2HR chart)

3. 4104-08 - (409.21, 409.46, 409.61) - Over $13.91 dark pool printed at this level

   1. 4108-4088 - OB (1HR chart)

4. 4092 - (407.99) - $2.55B dark pool printed at this level

   1. 4084-4072 - OB (1HR chart)

5. 4045-55 - (403.63) - $6B dark pool printed at this level
   

Above Spot - resistance:

1. 4143-4160 - OB (30min chart)

   1. 4150 - negative vanna

2. 4153-4176 - OB (1HR chart)

   1. 4155-4190 - positive vanna

3. 4195 - negative vanna

4. 4176-4200 - OB (2HR chart)

Dark Pool Levels

We need to pay attention to some key levels that have Dark Pool buildup. Mark them on your chart as key levels that we should pay attention to. Note I get my dark pool levels from Quant Data.

1. 4146 - (413.39) - $2.5B has printed at this level

2. 4104-08 - (409.21, 409.46, 409.61) - Over $13.91B has printed at this level

3. 4092 - (407.99) - $2.55B was printed at this level

4. 4045-55 - (403.63) - $6B has printed at this level

5. 4000 - (398.76) - $5.77B has printed at this level

6. 3950-70 - (395.62) - Over $8B has printed at this zone

7. 3910-15 - (390.11) a key dark pool level that kept the market supportive

Here is a summary chart from Quant Data that shows the key levels that have been bought up in dark pool prints since the beginning of March 1, 2023. Remember the levels where we see dark pool prints greater than $2B should peak our interest.

4/13 Dark Pool Levels via Quant Data

4/12 Dark Pool Levels via Quant Data

Orderblocks (OB) and Fair Value Gaps (FVG)

These are smart money concepts and some areas I am looking to see how price reacts. I will give higher credence to OB’s whereas FVG’s could be areas of basing/consolidation if they break.

Resistance levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to short or consolidates for a push up. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4143-4160 - OB (30min chart)

2. 4153-4176 - OB (1HR chart)

3. 4176-4200 - OB (2HR chart)

Support levels - at these levels I want to see if price rejects to long or consolidates for a push down. I couple this data with Volland, intraday option flows, and Dark Pool levels. Higher timeframe OB’s or FVG will be harder to break. OB’s are the stronger levels over FVG’s.

1. 4143-4132 - FVG (2HR chart)

2. 4108-4088 - OB (1HR chart)

3. 4084-4072 - OB (1HR chart)

4. 4070-4060 - FVG (1HR chart)

5. 4060-4051 - FVG (2HR chart)

Bullish orderblocks and fair value gaps continue to grow while bearish order blocks and fair value gaps continue to be mitigated

Weekly Option Expected Move

SPX’s weekly option expected move is ~60.78 points. SPY’s expected move is ~7.64. Remember over 68% of the time price will resolve it self in this range by weeks end.

SPX’s Weekly Option Expected Move for Week of 4/10

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VIX Update

Let’s review the VIX chart and its key levels…

Above Spot:

1. 18.96-19.32

2. 19.41-20.10

3. 20.45-21.06

Below Spot:

1. 17.32-16.92

2. 16.40-16.00

3. 16.04-15.44

4. 15.44-14.95

5. 14.13-12.95

Key VIX Levels

Remember, typically VIX going down correlates with a uptrend in the market and vice versa for a downtrend in the market.

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Volland Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must decrease or stay flat. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repellent VIX and IV must increase.

Positive vanna - will act as magnet

Negative vanna - will act as repellent

When price goes through a positive or negative level it will flip it - ie negative becomes positive and vice versa.

Above Spot:

1. 4150 - negative vanna

2. 4155-4190 - positive vanna

3. 4195 - negative vanna

4. 4200-4230 - positive vanna

5. 4235 - negative vanna

Below Spot:

1. 4145 - positive vanna

2. 4140-4125 - negative vanna

3. 4120-4020 - positive vanna

4. 4015 - negative vanna

Aggregate Vanna data from Volland

Gamma and Delta-Adjusted Gamma (DAG)

Positive Gamma Above Spot - acts as resistance

Positive Gamma Below Spot - acts as support

Negative Gamma - becomes permissive to price as it moves there - aka neither resistance nor support - simply just chillin and watching what’s happening…

Above Spot:

1. 4145-4190 - positive gamma

2. Dealers must buy between 4145-4155 and sell above 4160

Below Spot:

1. 4135-4125 - positive gamma

2. 4110-4100 - positive gamma

3. Dealers must buy between 4125-4115 and 4100-4070

4. Dealers must sell between 4140-4130

Aggregate Gamma data from Volland

Dealer buying vs selling pressure - positive notional value = buying - negative notional value = selling

Charm

Charm is negative on SPX. This suggests that Charm will have little a more bullish impact on SPX, and the total notional value has increased from $1B to $1.5B. Again this is an aggregate view of SPX - doesn’t guarantee 0DTE bullish bias.

SPX Charm total notional = bullish although the amount is minimal suggest a smaller sized bullish move to come

When reviewing Charm we also need to account for SPY’s charm. It is leaning bearish.

SPY Charm Notional Total Value show more positive total notional value - bearish signal

For the full charm effect to play out ideally we want to see SPX and SPY in sync.

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My Intraday Trading Rules

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To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quant Data and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

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