4/26 SPY Trade Plan
Bear Trap?
Readers,
Earlier today before the opening bell I tweeted out to watch 411.11 on SPY as it was last weeks VAL and we were opening below that level. Price did as I expected and came back up to test that value area. It was rejected reaching 411.16 and we never retested that level again during the session.
We basically hit the weekly market makers (MMs) downside target today. We have to see if they want to still keep it within range or if they want to send it lower.
Here is a update on the current monthly profile for April. This is the last trading week for this profile so we need to keep an eye on these values because they are still dynamic (meaning they can change throughout the trading sessions). VAH is 413.81, POC is 411.95, and VAL is at 408.89. We are at a monthly imbalance currently to the downside (under the VAL), so it will be key to see if they want to chase March’s value area or if they want to bring it back into April’s value. Again, the current levels (dotted lines) can and most likely will change as we get closer to the end of April.
Here is a weekly update on how the weekly volume profile is shaping out. The current VAH is 413, POC 412.12, and VAL at 408.63. Last weeks POC 411.59 and VAL 411.11 are no longer naked but I like to keep them on until this week ends. Today we also took out a naked weekly VAL at 408.25. This weeks current VAL at 408.63 is now a key level.
Positive Gamma
419, 416, 403, 401, 399
Negative Vanna
We have lots of negative Vanna above (previous close), I don’t know how much of a impact Vanna will have being that OPEX was last Friday. But here is what it looks like.
Key Levels Above (previous close - 406.08)
406.61, 407.60, 408.25
Negative Vanna 406-408
408.50, 408.63, 408.89
408.63 current weekly VAL
408.89 current monthly VAL
408 Negative Vanna
The bulls need to take this area back or we can see lower prices.
409.29, 409.70, 410.15
Negative Vanna
411.11, 411.59, 411.95, 412.12
411.11 last weeks VAL
411.59 last weeks POC
411.95 current monthly POC
412.12 current weekly POC
Negative Vanna
This area is very congested. (Chop zone, will be hared to trade)
412.50, 413.13, 413.61, 413.81, 414.41
Negative Vanna
413 current weekly VAH
413.81 current monthly VAH
Key Levels Below (previous close - 406.08)
406-405.40
Demand
404.60, 404.26, 403.54
Gap fill
404.26 naked weekly VAH
403.54 naked weekly POC
403 Positive Gamma
402.70-401.50
Demand
401 Positive Gamma
400.82, 400.41, 399.82
399.82 March VAH
Bulls need to reclaim the 408-409 level again if we want to grind higher. 404-403 could be strong support being that it is a naked value area high and POC. Vanna is on vacation since OPEX was on Friday. Stay safe out here the levels are getting pretty congested above us until we can get back above 412-413 and under 399.82 opens the door to 395 and lower.
Happy Trading,
—WICK—
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPY trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quantdata.us and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.