4/17 SPY Trade Plan
MMs are not expecting much range this week.
Readers,
This week the MMs are only expecting a $5.95 move in SPY by Friday 4/21 giving us the top range of 418.41 and a lower range of 406.51.
Looking at the monthly profile we can see that we have been building value just under Feb’s POC of 411.77, our current VAH is 411.42, POC is 409.02 and VAL at 407.37. We closed the session on Friday at 412.46, just above this value area. We also have 417.08 or Feb’s VAH within reach. August’22 VAH is at 420.36 and above that we have April of 2022’s value area right at 428. If we test that value area it will the 3rd attempt at cracking it since it was formed. If we can get accepted above that value, that would open the door to 445.48 the POC. If we push down under 407 we could revisit the March value area.
On the weekly profile, we closed just above last weeks value area (412.17 VAH). Our next naked value area is up at 425.53-429.94. We also have a nice gap on the 4hr chart sitting at 419.96-421.22. If last weeks value area can hold, we can push these levels. Our next naked value area below us is at 404.26-395.13, if we lose 408.25 we open the down to test that area.
Positive Gamma
419, 416, 414, 413, 407, 403, 392, 390
Negative Vanna
422, 418, 415, 412, 407, 403, 392, 390
Key Levels Above (previous close - 412.46)
412.75 - 413.12
413 positive Gamma (resistance)
413.85, 414.50, 415.10
414 positive Gamma (resistance)
415 negative Vanna (resistance)
416, 417.08, 418.50
416 positive Gamma (resistance)
417.08 is Feb’s VAH, this is a very important level. Keep a close eye if we trade up here.
418 negative Vanna (resistance)
418.41 is the MMs weekly high expectations
419.96 - 421.22
Potential gap fill.
422 negative Vanna (resistance)
Key Levels Below (previous close 412.46)
412.17, 411.77, 411.42
412.17 is last weeks VAH
412 negative Vanna (support)
411.77 Feb’s POC
410.67, 410.15, 409.69, 409.26
410.67 last weeks POC
409 current monthly POC
408.80, 408.50, 408.25, 407.80
408.25 last weeks VAL
We have a lot of volume that has been traded around these levels as of late. Key area!
407.50 - 406.80
407 positive Gamma/negative Vanna (stronger support)
407.37 current monthly VAL
406.51 is the MMs weekly low expectations
406, 405.40, 404.60, 404.26, 403.54
404.26 is the next naked value area on the weekly profile
403.54 is the POC
403 positive Gamma/negative Vanna (stronger support
I think that last weeks value area will be key going into this week. Bulls want this to hold as support and if we visit 404-403 we should be watching for a bounce or a continuation down into 395.
Happy Trading,
—WICK—
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPY trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quantdata.us and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.