3/8 SPY Trade Plan
Short and sweet
Readers,
The key level was 404, I know the initial dump under 404 was hard to catch, if you caught it, congrats! But the market gave us some nice reentries at our other levels see see below. Here is a link to yesterday’s plan if you want to go review it.
—3/8 Pre Plan—
We are getting close to the downside expected move, we have three trading sessions remaining on the week and I will be watching 396 like a hawk. I am watching for for something like this
Scenario 1 seems crazy I know, but Ive seen it happen, and we will play the levels to it if that’s what the market wants to do.
On the monthly volume profile we might be headed for a full value rotation, we are trading well under the VAH and we might be targeting the POC around 394.40 and the VAL at 392.30. The bulls need to gat back over 402.
On the weekly profile we are now trading back inside last weeks value POC is at 397.35 VAH at 399.36 and VAL at 393.90.
Looking at Volland and the aggregate vanna we are now starting to get negative vanna built up around 400-406, this is telling me that 400-406 will be stronger resistance unless news or an event takes us through it, we also have negative vanna at 389 and 412.
The vanna for tomorrow’s expiration is showing negative at 396,394, 389 and 400
Gamma for tomorrow is showing positive at 396, 394, 389, 401, and 403.
—3/8 Trade Plan—
Bullish Scenario
Above 398 I want to see if we can target 400-403 again
Positive gamma at 401 and 403 and negative vanna
Should act as stronger resistance but not saying we can’t go higher.
Above 403 target 404, 405.30, 405.88, 406.55, 407.50-408.
Bearish Scenario
Below 397.35 I want to see if we can trade 390-388.
The current monthly POC is at 394.40 and VAL at 392.30
Under 392.30 I think that opens the door to 390-388 (the downside target we have been targeting for a few weeks now)
396 and 394 is neg vanna and positive gamma which could be stronger resistance
We also have low volume at 395.50-395 (could be a problem area for shorts)
Under 394 target 393.41, 392.84, 392.36, 391.41, 390-388
Remember we have more of Powell tomorrow at 10:00am EST so we can expect volatility. For the bears I think we need VIX 20-22 if they really want to get things going.
@Darkmattertrade wanted me to let you all know that he was unable to get to his post tonight, he told me that he will try and get some SPX info out before the bell. Be on the lookout for a tweet from him in the morning. If you are wanting SPX levels.
Happy Trading,
—WICK—
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPY trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Tradytics and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.