3/7 SPY Trade Plan
Important next two days.
Readers,
Our levels from last nights plan again proved to be successful, the plan is here if you have not read it, but I want to highlight some of it. The gap up at the open made it hard to trade longs, the set up for me was to wait and see if we pulled back to 403.50 or if we could push up into 407.50.
The hod was 407.45, and the bulls made three attempts to break it and could not do is. We had conviction at this level because of our homework on Sunday.
—Pre Plan—
Tomorrow at 10:00am EST Powell testifies before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. This could cause some volatility. In terms of levels not much is changing going into tomorrow but here are some observations. In terms of price action not much happened on Monday, most of the levels are still in play.
I think we might have some unfinished business down around 401.75-399.
Last weeks VAH (value area high) has not been tested and if we could get a move down to that area and we can hold, I think that would be a pretty strong indicator that they want to take us higher. We can also still make a run at 409-412 but we have to get past 407.50-408.50.
The Volland data for tomorrow on a aggregate view did change and the data for 3/7 expiration is showing negative vanna above spot to 415 where there is a spike in positive vanna and we have positive vanna below to 392.
The gamma for tomorrow is also heavily negative with positive values at 415 and 392. Does this mean that we are going to trade one of those two levels? No, i’m just showing you what the data is showing.
I honestly think that they don’t know. We are still at a push pull trying to find direction. Price action could get choppy or it could get volatile.
—3/7 Trade Plan—
Bullish scenario
Above 404 target 405.87-406.50 if we can push I think we test 407.50-408.50
at the minimum I want to see 403.50-403 hold (could be a good dip buy)
above 409 I want to see what happens at 410-412 (weekly levels)
Bearish Scenario
Below 404 I want to target 400-399
400 is a big level, it appears that we could have some unfinished business down there
under 404 first target 403.50-403
under 401.50 taret 400-399
Going into the next two days we have back to back Powell. Stay nimble, don’t trade if it seems muddy or there is not clear direction. If you want a more conservative approach to tomorrow you can always play calls above Mondays high or puts under the low, 407.45 or 404.01.
Happy Trading,
—WICK—
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPY trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Tradytics and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.