3/21 SPY Trade Plan
Double inside.
Readers,
Our bullish scenario played out pretty well today, we were watching 390 to the upside and the downside. Our low for today’s session was 390.07. We opened up inside of last weeks value area (the key area we are watching this week, from 391.57 to 385.24 and we closed above it.
—3/21 Pre-Plan—
Here is something worth noting. Here is what the monthly profile looked like before today’s session. The POC is down at 389.09.
Here it is as of today’s close, the POC moved up to 394.14 and we re trading below it. We also have a double inside day on the 1D timeframe. Both sides are trapped and one will have to give. This puts more weight on the 394 level going into tomorrow.
Last weeks value area is still an important zone for the week. It appears that it is holding as support and we are now building value to the upside. Can we see that naked POC at 398.31?
The aggregate data has negative vanna values at 386, 393, 395, 396, 398-400, 402.50-407. Majority of the positive vanna is below spot.
Gamma is positive at 378, 381, 386, 392, 393, 397.50, 401
—3/21 Trade Plan—
Bullish scenario
Above 393 target 394.50-395.40
393 is positive gamma this should act as support if we open or bid above.
395 is negative vanna, this might be a hard level to push above.
Above 395.40 target 396.50-397.50
397.50 is positive vanna (could act as a magnet) and its also positive gamma.
Above 397.50 target 398.31, 399.16, 400.50, 401.53, 402.02, 403.50.
402.02 is the market makers expected move for 3/24
Bearish Scenario
Below 393 target 392-390.85
392-393 is positive gamma, could hold as support.
Positive vanna cluster at 391-388
Below 390 target 389.27, 388.62, 387.85, 387, 386.50
Under 390 we have a cluster of positive vanna/negative gamma all the way to 381, (381 is also the next positive gamma).
386 is positive gamma as of 3/20
Under 386.50 target 385.25, 384.12, 382.93, 381.50
positive gamma/negative vanna at 381. Could be support.
Under 381 target 380.50, 379.85, 379-377
378-376 is positive gamma/negative vanna, could be a problem for the bears.
I have a demand zone at 374.75-373.50, 373 is also negative vanna/positive gamma. If we trade these levels later in the week I will be sure to inform you on any data changes.
Levels are getting tight, remember we have FOMC on Wednesday. We also had a double inside bar on SPY 1D timeframe. Big move is coming, it makes sense that it happens Wednesday but we need to be prepared.
Happy Trading,
—WICK—
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPY trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quantdata.us and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.