3/14 SPY Trade Plan
CPI!
Readers,
Today we had a few of our levels hit premarket and during RTH, but here is what we were watching,
We opened at 381.81 and sold down to 380.65 and rallied back up to 390.39, pennies away from 380.50 and reaching our first upside target of 390.30. Our 385 was and is still a big level.
Notice how price reacts and consolidates in and around our zones. I was hoping for a bigger move, but we have all week, we are just getting started. Let’s dive in.
—3/14 Pre-Plan—
Not much changed in terms of volume profile on the bigger timeframes but look at this, see how price came into value but was rejected, the bears are trying to keep the bulls out, something to keep an eye on.
When we look at the data for tomorrow on SPY we have a interesting look on vanna for tomorrow’s expiration. Notice how we have a bigger cluster of negative vanna under 383 (could be a potential bottom), and we have a positive cluster at 400. If the bulls can make a move above 390 we can potentially see 399-400 but keep in mind that we have negative vanna in the way, so a drop in IV will help us get there.
The gamma for tomorrow is showing the same, we have positive gamma under 383, at 389-390 and up around 400. Its safe to say that 390 is going to be a key level as well as 383.
—3/14 Trade Plan—
We have a similar plan going into tomorrow with a lot of the same levels, but please keep in mind that CPI will be released one hour before the opening bell, So the levels at were we open can drastically change. I would suggest making a note of these and use them as support and resistance at open. We closed at 385 so I will give you the key levels above and below the close.
Bullish Scenario
Above 385 target 386.35 - 387.75
Negative vanna at 387-388 could be resistance but we also have positive vanna at 389-392.
Above 387.75 target 390.30-391.37
Positive vanna and positive gamma at 389-390, I think this level could be the KEY resistance, or it could be the key support tomorrow, above it I think we can squeeze higher, or this could be session high.
After 391.37 target 393-394.34, 395.24, 397.33-397.77, 399.21-400.58 we could also see 403-405
If we can get above 390 and run, the positive gamma up around 400 be a magnet.
Bearish Scenario
Below 384 target 382.93 - 381.50
Negative vanna below 383 could act as major support. If we can push down under 383 we will need a big increase in IV. But this is when the aggregate vanna comes into play from the weekly plan.
Below 381.50 target 380.50-379.85, 379-377.70
377-376 is negative vanna and positive gamma(aggregate), we will look at this level for potential support.
Under 376 target 374.74-373.50, 371.16, 368.81
Happy Trading,
—WICK—
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPY trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Tradytics and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.