3/10 SPY Trade Plan
Readers,
Monster day from the bears, they got a little help from Silicon Valley Bank but our downside levels provided some really nice area’s for entry.
If we look back at our weekly plan from Sunday majority of our key levels have traded! Here is a link if you want to go read it.
—3/10 Pre Plan—
Im going to start with the Volland data first, aggregate vanna is showing positive at 393 and 390, 385 and 380 and we have negative vanna at 394-406, 389, 387-386, 378-376. This is saying that 393 could act as tomorrow’s top if it trades. and under 390 we can see 388, 385, 380 but the negative vanna at 389, 387-386 could be support and the negative vanna at 378-376 could be support.
The vanna for tomorrow is showing similar levels, we have positive vanna at 393-394 with a big cluster of negative above, this aligns with the possible 393 top, but now we have to consider 394 as well, we have some bigger positive vanna bars down at 385 and 380. Negative vanna at 389-388, 383.
We are coming close to Jan POC at 388.60, at the time of this post in the overnight session we traded down to 388.46 as of 11:05pm CST
The weekly volume profile is showing that if we lose that previous VAL around 391 we should target 385-384 in the near future. If the bulls can push back above 393 they could maybe climb back up to 398-400. Might not happen tomorrow but we need to keep this levels on the plan.
Here is the monthly profile. Bulls need to hold that POC and VAL at 388.60 and 387.54 or it could get ugly…or beautiful however you want to look at it.
—3/10 Trade Plan—
Bullish Scenario
Above 390.30 target 391.20, 393-394
positive vanna at 390 and 393 could act as magnets
negative vanna above 394 could act as strong resistance (we would need vol crush in order to push above 394)
If we get vol crush and we push above 394 some targets would be 395.40, 396.50, 397.30, 398
Bearish Scenario
Below 390 target 389.36-389, 388.50-388, 387.25, 386.30
Negative vanna at 389-388 might act as support, also January's POC is sitting at 388.60 and the VAL is at 387.54
Under 386.30 target 385.10-384
The positive vanna at 385 could act as a magnet but the negative vanna at 384-383 will act as support.
Under 384 target 382.15-381.50, then 380-377
The positive vanna at 381-380 could act as a magnet
One more quick note, we are trading well under the market makers weekly expected move, they try to respect these levels so it will be interesting to see if they try to push price back towards 396.
Happy Trading,
—WICK—
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPY trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Tradytics and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.