2/17 SPX, SPY, ES, QQQ Trade Plan

Will the market selloff?

Are the bears out of hibernation?

Before we get into tomorrow’s trade plan, let’s do a quick recap of today. The SPX opened at 4101 quickly rising to 4104 and dropping as low as 4091. All of this within the first half hour of the trading day.

This is why I typically wait at least the first half hour of taking any new trades on the day allowing price to determine some direction allowing me to reduce risk and enter with the best reward in a trade.

So at 10am est - waiting that half hour timeframe - price fell below 4100, but on the 5min printed a bullish candle. It is after this candle on the next candle at 10:05am est I took a call - SPX 2/17 expiry 4130c. I scalped this for about $150 and should have had conviction that 4100 would hold and then target 4125. I cut this trade near 4110 - had I held to my original target of 4125 would have netted an extra $500.

Towards the end of the day upon the break of 4125 around 3:06pm est I entered in a 1DTE SPY 409 put. I let momentum carry this one with FED speaker speaking very hawkish. I ended up closing this trade prior to the close of the session and still hold a swing trade of 3/31 expiry SPY 400 put.

It all comes down to conviction at the end of the day and having a trading plan backed by data to build your conviction. We will continue to get better as a group!

SPY Put Trade PnL

I also want to refer back to Captain Wick’s SPY trade plan for today. This plan played out perfectly showing you how you can compliment volume profile analysis with volland data. The bearish outlook proved to play out with volume coming back to the curve of the P. Read it below and reach out if you have questions on how to incorporate volume profile analysis into your trading strategy. Note there will be no specific SPY analysis for 2/17 unless provided via Twitter by Captain Wick.

2/16 SPY Trade Plan

I enjoy interacting and learning from other traders so continue to share your trades, ideas, and how you use this trade plan by messaging me on Twitter @DarkMatterTrade.

News Catalyst

Just a FED speaker to lookout for news catalyst

1. 8:45am est - FOMC Member Bowman Speaks

For more information on these news events, visit the Economic Calendar

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SPX/ES/SPY Notes:

Remember you can use this SPX trade plan to trade ES.

1. Orange - Bull trap breakout and back within the wedge looking to test the bottom of it

2. Purple - This trendline was broken at FOMC around 4093/95 and we again broke below it, but will it hold as resistance this time?

3. White - this is our trendline from the Covid 2020 low - while price broke below it, we were able to get back within it

Key trendlines on SPX - 2HR Chart via TradingView

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SPX/ES/SPY Trade Plan:

Bullish bias:

1. Above 4095 target 4115

2. If there is a failed breakdown at 4070/75 target 4095

3. If there is a breakout at 4115 target 4130

Bearish bias:

1. Below 4070 target 4055

2. If there is a failed breakout above 4095 target 4065 then 4055

3. If there is a breakdown of 4050 target 4010

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Vol.land Data

For a better understanding of the various greeks below I would suggest you visit the Volland YouTube Page. Volland provides unique data showing where dealers are positioned providing in my opinion a higher degree of conviction to where price may move to.

Vanna - Levels where price may repel or act as magnet

Remember for price to go above spot through a magnet or repel VIX and IV must decrease. For price to go below spot through a magnet or repel VIX and IV must increase.

Above Spot:

1. 4095 is a minor negative vanna - acting as repellent

2. 4100 is a minor positive vanna - acting as magnet

3. 4120 is a minor negative vanna - acting as repellent

4. 4150 is a major negative vanna - acting as repellent

5. 4175 is a major negative vanna - acting as repellent

Below Spot:

1. 4080 is a minor negative vanna - acting as repellent

2. 4075 is a minor positive vanna - acting as magnet

3. 4070-4055 is a cluster of minor negative vanna - acting as repellent

4. 4050 is a major positive vanna - acting as magnet

5. 4050-4010 is a cluster of positive vanna’s - acting as magnet

6. 4025 is a major positive vanna - acting as magnet

7. 4005 is a negative vanna - acting as repellent

• Our range could be 4010-4115

• If 4055 breaks down, it targets 4000 and this is an area I would add size in puts

• It’s a hard argument for the bulls to see upside above 4120

Vanna data from vol.land

Gamma and Delta-Adjusted Gamma (DAG)

Above Spot:

1. 4105 is a positive Gamma - acting as resistance

2. 4130 is a positive Gamma - acting as resistance

3. If price gets above 4090 this will increase dealer selling pressure - making it a tough resistance to overcome

Below Spot:

1. 4080 is a medium positive Gamma - acting as support

2. 4065 is a major positive Gamma - acting as support

3. 4005 is a minor positive Gamma - acting as support

4. Price below 4080 will increase dealer selling pressure to 4070/65

5. Price below 4070 will increase dealer selling pressure to 4055

• 4130 will be a major barrier to get past

• 4065 is a major level and if lost takes us easily to 4005

Gamma data from vol.land

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QQQ Trade Plan

Bullish bias:

1. Above 300 target 305

2. If there is a failed breakdown at 299-300 target 305

Bearish bias:

1. Below 300 target 295

2. If there is a failed breakout at 305 target 300 then 295

Vanna:

Above Spot:

1. 305 is a minor positive vanna - acting as magnet

2. 306-309 are minor negative vanna - acting as repellent

3. 310 is a major positive vanna - acting as magnet

4. 311-312 are negative vanna - acting as repellent

Below Spot:

1. 303-301 are minor positive vanna - acting as magnet

2. 300 is a major negative vanna - acting as repellent

3. 299-296 are positive vanna - acting as magnet

4. 295 is a negative vanna - acting as repellent

Gamma:

Above Spot:

1. 310 is a major positive Gamma - acting as resistance

2. 315 is a major positive Gamma - acting as resistance

Below Spot:

1. 304-303 are minor positive Gamma - acting as support

2. 300 is a major positive Gamma - acting as support

3. 295 is a minor positive Gamma - acting as support

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Stay #paytient and react to the key levels - no predictions! Good luck traders.

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I am going to share my key rules to intraday trading in the end of the plan moving forward to build better habits and allowing you to grow as a better trader.

My Intraday Trading Rules

1. I do not trade within the first half hour UNLESS I am in a trade from the prior session and looking to close the trade or we have a major gap or a key level already broken

   1. I let the initial balance do its thing - I am just a small fish in a large ocean of traders so let's let them fight it out

   2. I then wait for key levels targeting one level to the next and taking profits at each one.

      1. If there are key levels that are 10pts apart that is when I have scalping mindset and anything above 10pts I want to give it the room to hit the price target with a 5 pt buffer to take profits once we reach within 5 pts of a target - I also tighten my stop loss once at 10-20% profit with the goal of never allowing trades to go red when I have a nice profit)

2. I supply options greeks with OB (order blocks) and FVG (fair value gaps) otherwise known as Smart Money Concepts

3. When I am scalping - ie targeting 10pt trade levels I will take profits and never go more than 10% red. Simple as that, know your trade plan strategy and the risk. When you are wrong you are wrong and reset

4. For 20pt trade level targets I will increase my stop losses to 20% and allow more of the trade to play in the event I entered too early

5. I try - key word try ha - avoid trading lunch hours defined as 12pm to 2 pm est. Money for the most part unless you are scalping - is made in the first 2 hours of the trading day and the last 2 hours

6. I always stick to two EMA’s on my chart and that’s the 10/50 EMA’s

   1. When the 10ema is above 50ema we are bullish

   2. When the 10ema is below the 50ema we are bearish

   3. Go put these on your charts and when you view them on timeframes less than the daily timeframe you will see the power they provide

   4. For scalpers out there the smaller timeframes provide great opportunities to scalp 5-10pt moves

There are more we could discuss including volume profile, low volume nodes that I think are great strategies to compliment option greeks. Maybe in the future we can include more details.

Trading is not for the unprepared. It is critical you abide to a strategy and checklist and walk into every trade with a plan. Without a plan you are simply gambling and have a better chance at the slot machines. There are more nuances to my weekly and daily checklists, but I think this provides a good read for now and we will/can continue adding to it.

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To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPX trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advice you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Tradytics and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.

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