1/22 Weekly Trade Plan
SPY QQQ TSLA
SPY
The Market Makers (MMs) weekly implied move is $5.84
Upper range = 488.27
Lower range = 476.59
We have finally eclipsed ATH on this ticker. Last week was pretty insane as we hit the MMs low early in the week and then on Friday, we hit the MMs implied high on the week, closing right above it.
We have some names reporting ER this week so we could maybe see some volatility. On Wednesday after the bell, we have TSLA, and we have been following this move down for some time now, and we could be in store for a big move. I will update that later in the post.
This shaded area on the monthly profile is a big consolidation zone. Bulls have to defend this area if we come back into it. If we lose this area to the downside, it could get ugly of the bulls. We might not retest this area this week, but we need to keep it in the back of our minds.
This zone could also offer a good buying opportunity if we come down and holds as support.
Last week’s value area is from 478.99 to 471.93, with the POC at 474.30. We don’t have any levels above us in terms of volume profile, so how do we find potential targets or areas where sellers might step in? Well for one we have the weekly MMs implied move which I stated at the start of this post, that level is 488.27. We can also use some fibs to find potential levels.
If we take the swing low on 1/5 to the swing high on 1/12 you can see we then retraced just under the 61.8%, we have now pushed back above that swing high. If this decides to do a full extension, we are looking at a target around 486.12 up to 490.77.
Key Levels of Support
S1- 482.11 Friday’s POC. Notice how at these price levels we have a big volume node that printed from about 481.50 to 482.72. It was an OpEx Friday so there was a lot of profit taking at these levels. This is a big area.
S2- 480-479 psych level and last week’s value area high.
S3- 477.55 December’s VAH
S4- 476.59 MMs weekly expected low as well as the current January VAH.
S5- 475.21 the current 10 SMA on the 1D. We are pretty extended from this level so price might mellow out.
I will update throughout the week if we are trading under 475.
Key Levels of Resistance
R1- 482.72 Friday’s VAH
R2- 483.25 38.2% extension on the 4hr from the swing low on 1/5 to the swing high on 1/12
R3- 484.69 50% extension on the 4hr from the swing low on 1/5 to the swing high on 1/12'
R4- 486.12 68.1% extension on the 4hr from the swing low on 1/5 to the swing high on 1/12
R5- 488.27 MMs weekly implied high
QQQ
411.72 is the current January VAH, this is telling me that 70% of the monthly volume is still down under that level and we are really extended from it. Does that mean we are going to head back down towards that level? No, but I will say that it’s the same here as it is on SPY. That level is going to be critical going forward.
We are at a major imbalance to the upside via this monthly profile. Let’s breakdown the smaller timeframes.
On the weekly profile via the 4-hour chart, last week’s value area is from 421.34 to 408.63 with a POC at 420.88. We also have a gap that we can potentially fill sitting at 414.63 to 413.58. I will have alerts set on this gap fill because I want to know if and when we trade there, and if we support or fail.
We need to see if we have any swing highs and lows that we can generate fibs from.
I wish I would have seen this last week before the big push up. From the swing low on 1/5 to the swing high on 1/12 we retraced exactly 50% to the 403.27 level. We have now done a full 50% extension from that move and surpassed it to the 61.8% extension. Above this we are looking at 423.67 and 427.06 which would be a full fib extension. This would put us around the MMs weekly implied move on QQQ as well around that 427-428 level.
Key Levels of Support
S1- 421.04-420.88 Friday’s POC and last week’s POC.
S2- 416.44 Friday’s VAL (we could catch a bid somewhere between 420.88 and 416.44) Some fibs from Friday’s low to high are 419.78, 418.77, 417.98, 417.19 (I will include a chart below.
S3- 414.63-413.58 this would be a very high level of interest if we get here, it’s a gap fill on the 4hr chart.
S4- 412.74, 411, 410.44 December’s VAH and 1/18 POC/VAL 408.58 is the 10 SMA on the 1D.
Key Levels of Resistance
R1- 421.34 last week’s VAH and current high as of the RTH close on 1/19
R2- 423.76 78.6% extension on the 4hr from the swing low on 1/5 to the swing high on 1/12
R3- 427.16 Full 100% extension on the 4hr from the swing low on 1/5 to the swing high on 1/12. This is also right around the weekly MMs expected move for the week.
R4- 428-430 psych level.
TSLA
We have ER after the closing bell on Wednesday this week on this name. This could cause some strong volatility for TSLA, and you should only play this with what you are comfortable losing. If you want to play it safe, buy out a week or two but you are going to pay for it because of IV. Remember, if you are holding options into ER and the trade does not move, or it moves against you, on Thursday these contracts will be hit with what we call IV crush, especially if you are playing this week’s expiration. So, keep this in mind, these can be hero contracts, but they can also go to zero, and fast. For myself, if I trade this, I will be going light. Reminder, this is NOT financial advice, this is simply my opinion.
Look at this 1D chart on TSLA, this shaded area is a big multi month value area. It has tons of value area highs, lows and POC’s. This is a BIG zone, and I am showing you this so we can see the big picture.
A rejection of this area is not good for the bulls. They need to save this and get price back above the 200 level. There are months of trapped traders in that zone, and we need to keep track of where price is in relation to it. If we stay under this, I think price can make a move down to the 190-180 level where May 2023 VAH sits.
This weekly profile has given us a clear balance area in between 227 and 198.25. We can use this as our key zone on the week.
Last week’s value area is from 208.83 to 215.21 with a POC at 213.85. The idea is we want to be long calls and target 227 if price can hold above 215.21. Or we want to be long puts under 208.83 targeting 198.25.
Key Levels of Support
S1- 211.33-209.67-208.35 Last week’s VAL and Friday’s VAH/POC/VAL
S2- 406-404.12 TSLA sometimes like to find support/resistance before its levels, this is why I am throwing 206 into the mix. I think somewhere in this zone we can find support and it could produce a rally.
S3- 201.31-200.29 POC and VAL on 11/1/23
S4- 198.25 naked weekly POC
S4- 196-194.15 10/31 VAL and a naked weekly VAL
Key Levels of Resistance
R1- 213.45-213.85 1/18 VAH and last week’s POC
R2-215.12 last week’s VAH
R3- 219.09-219.93 1/16 VAL/POC
R4- 222.02 1/16 VAH
R5- 226.04-227.03-227.93 1/11 VAL/VAH and naked weekly VAL
Happy Trading,
—WICK—
To cover our basis…
Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advise you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quantdata.us and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.