08/14 SPY Weekly Trade Plan

444-443.50, CHECK!

Readers,

We got there! We have been asking for 444.08-443.48 for 2 weeks now and we finally got there on Friday. Last week I said this,

I still think that we could potentially have a nice rally early in the week, but we have to be careful because this week we have; Vixperation and FOMC Minutes. This could cause some weakness in the markets.

Market Makers (MMs) Weekly Expected Range

• The MMs are expecting a weekly move in SPY of 6.67 this week.

  • 452.32 High

  • 438.98 Low

1D SPY with MMs weekly expected move

Monthly Volume Profile Levels

• Current Value Area

  • 450.30 Value Area High (VAH)

  • 445.92 Point of Control (POC)

  • 445.29 Value Area Low (VAL)

• July’s Value Area

  • 458.54 VAH

  • 454.18 POC 

  • 446.24 VAL (Breached)

• Notable Naked Levels

  • 411.56 May POC

  • 409.77 May VAL

On the monthly profile our current values all shifted down, which makes sense as price came down this past week. We closed on Friday within the current value area but below July’s VAL. If the bulls can maintain above 446.24, I think they can maybe push us back into 450-454.18. Either way, once we leave 445-446, we should have a nice move in that direction, up or down.

1D SPY with monthly volume profile

Weekly Volume Profile Levels

• Last Week's Levels

  • 448.53 VAH

  • 446.18 POC

  • 444.85 VAL

• Notable Naked Levels

  • 467.89 VAH

  • 462.82 POC

  • 454.19 POC

  • 453.76 VAL

  • 441.72 VAL

  • 436.24 POC

  • 432.37 VAL

4hr SPY with weekly volume profile

The weekly profile moved down as well but it seems as if we caught support at the recent breakout level of 444 that sent us almost to 460. Will price go to 462? The answer is, I don’t know, I have no idea, I can only trade what the market gives me. As long as price stays above 444, I want to target those levels at 453.76-462 obviously knowing that we won’t go in a straight line. I will keep you guys updated via X on what happens throughout the week.

If price falls under 443.50, I think we see that naked VAL sitting at 441.72 with the potential to get nasty underneath.

4hr SPY

Positive Gamma

• Aggregate

  • 427, 445, 449, 450, 451, 453, 455, 458

• This week

  • 420, 433, 445, 449-451, 453, 458

My initial thoughts after seeing Gamma, it seems as if 445 has to hold or it can get ugly. The next positive gamma level is at 433, dealers might want to keep price above and take a shot at the 450 level.

SPY aggregate Gamma

SPY Gamma for 8/14-8/18 expirations

Negative Vanna

• Aggregate

  • 427, 445, 452, 454-457, 460, 461

• This week

  • 420, 429, 433, 445, 447, 448, 452, 454-457+

SPY aggregate Vanna

SPY Vanna for 8/14-8/18

After mowing it all over I still think there could be some more upside potential. Although I think the bears have a good case to send this down if they want to. I think that 444-443 level is important, under 443 I wanna see what happens at 441.50-440, I think under that the selloff could get a little out of hand.

Keep an eye on volatility. If VIX gets going we can have some wild swings kinda like last week where it feels like the market as a whole is going nowhere but if you trade your levels, it can be very profitable. Stay safe out there.

Happy Trading,

—WICK—

To cover our basis…

Welcome to my Substack where I provide a daily SPY trading plan to help guide my intraday trading. The purpose of this letter is not to advise you on your trading or investment decisions. I am simply documenting my daily trading plan for myself to help with planning and execution. These are simply my opinions and the data sourced from the likes of vol.land, TradingView, Quantdata.us and others. The stock market is risky, gains are not guaranteed. This is not about getting rich quick, but learn to educate yourself and make the necessary financial decisions on your own. This is not financial advice.